The Changing Image of Women

When I returned to school a few years ago, one of the first classes I took was Westward Expansion in U.S. History. I thought the class would be a easy start for my return to academia, [IE] all about cowboys and Indians. But, to my surprise the class theme was the role that people other than white guys played in the American frontier experience. It was eye opening and I came away with a new respect for the other people, made up of ethnic groups and woman of all races. History has overlooked much of the contributions made by women in particular. The last decades have seen a shift to focus on their accomplishments and achievements. That professor, Dr. Gordon Bakken, has been a leader in championing the role of women in western history.Gordon Bakken homepage. He opened my eyes and pointed the way to a new understanding of American History.

A few items caught my eye today as I scanned the blogs. The first is led off by Steve DeAngelis who writes on his blog that Nerds get Curves. He notes that teenage girls are becoming prolific computer geeks. That is not to say that they will enter the field of computer science. DeAngelis writes:

That as Thomas Barnett, noted on his blog that girls around the world are starting to be appreciated more [To go Core is to value daughters]. As father of daughter, this is a trend I'm pleased to see. It is also a concomitant benefit of globalization that rarely gets mentioned. I do think that as more young girls become familiar with technology more of them will eventually get interested in the technical side of IT. These, however, will be the girls who are fascinated with how things are done (i.e., how the programs work) rather than the girls who are fascinated by what's done with them (i.e., content created for the Web). We are all better off when half of humanity is neither sidelined nor pigeon-holed into stereotyped roles. We need all of the help we can get from all of the best minds available to help solve the challenges headed our way.

Supporting this trend has been the enrollment in post-secondary schools for the past decade in the United States. At Colleges, Women Are Leaving Men in the Dust - New York Times.

Along that line, I am reminded of several young women who are up and coming minds on their way to becoming the kind of people that Steve and Tom are writing about. I have posted before about one who labeled herself (Metacognition) on her myspace page.A Resilient Nation, and is looking to make her mark in international business.

Another, is a daughter of Vietnam, who had such a passion for history that she goes to school three nights a week completing her degree, as she works full time at a demanding career.

One other, a daughter of Egypt and Persia, graduated with honors with a degree in film and television. Her goal is not to be an actress, although she has the talent and looks, but to be a director, and win an Oscar for that achievement.

That brings me to an article I found linked on Small Wars Journal's editorial review for February 29th. It's author will surprise you, Staying to Help in Iraq I will let you read the article to see who it is: note the final paragraph. A hint it is a woman not famous for being a diplomat.

As for the question of whether the surge is working, I can only state what I witnessed: U.N. staff and those of non-governmental organizations seem to feel they have the right set of circumstances to attempt to scale up their programs. And when I asked the troops if they wanted to go home as soon as possible, they said that they miss home but feel invested in Iraq. They have lost many friends and want to be a part of the humanitarian progress they now feel is possible.

Turning to the other side of the World, a post on Shangaiist blog notes that China is ending their one-child policy that caused countless baby girls to be aborted over the past decades.China to end one-child policy? What this means is that China like the rest of the World is taking note of the value of women and that civilization can not flourish without their Full participation.

This post is not to glorify women over men, it is to recognize that if you educate and empower women, the next generation will be even more prepared for the ever expanding universe of information humans are required to master.

Hegemony and Iran, Revisited.

Last month I wrote two posts, Resource consumption and hegemony, roadblocks to the future? and Democracy in retreat? where the subject of American hegemony was addressed. Then later in a post,My Persian Sons I wrote of my connection with Iran.

Today, Tom Barnett has two posts that offer more on the subjects. The first is a comment on a review of Parag Khanna's book,Waving Goodbye to Hegemony by Robert Jordan Prescott at House of Marathon, A Global, Multi-Civilizational, Multi-Polar Muddle, I concur with Tom's view that this is "beautifully written."

The second post that struck home with me was a lengthy post about Iran,Same old in Iran where Tom takes the time to follow up on an article by Thomas Erdbrink in the Washington Post entitled, Iran's Clerical Old Guard Being Pushed Aside. After reading the Post article, I found Barnett's comments even more helpful, in that he added the icing on the cake to explain in detail what the original piece addressed. He begins:

With any revolutionary state, the original leadership generation ages out, usually without grace and with plenty of regrets. They see what could have been and what it's turned out to be. They look back over past decisions, and realize they would have done things differently if given the chance again to rule. They typically split across two impulses: 1) they should have been more stringent re: the revolution; and 2) they should have moved more decisively to normalize the revolution's relationship with the outside world.

And cuts to the chase with:

Fascinating stuff that shows, in my opinion, that Iran's revolution is hardly unique or unknowable or "irrational." Instead we see the same old, same old: corrupt ideologues versus less corrupt technocrats. Both think they can revitalize the failed revolution, and both are wrong. But with oil prices lubricating the regime's failures so nicely, the outcome of this yin-and-yang-like struggle may go on for a while, meaning we better be ready to seize our chances for soft-kill strategies when the technocrats are in power.
That, and we should pray for the Supreme Leader's imminent demise.

A fine bit of analysis by a man with a masterful eye on the horizon.

Postscript:
Additional insight about Iran, can be found at MilitaryHistoryOnline.com where an article entitled, Special Feature: Reflections on Iran. is a very informative report with pictures.

A Salad Bowl Won't Assimilate

regentsprep.org

A few months ago I wrote a post entitled A Resilient Nation. The basic theme of the post was that the United States most stable asset was it's values. Those values came by the ability to assimilate almost everyone, regardless of their origin and creed, into having shared core values that are the basis for our country being successful. Those values are rooted in education, and trust in the law to protect individual rights.

An article by Lawrence Harrison in the Christian Science Monitor gave me pause to consider. Entitled The End of Multiculturalism, Harrison points out that the United States must retain it's title of a melting pot in order to remain vibrant. He writes:

Culture isn't about genes or race; it's about values, beliefs, and attitudes. Culture matters because it influences a society's receptivity to democracy, justice, entrepreneurship, and free-market institutions.........

He Adds:

A key component of a successful democratic transition is trust, a particularly important cultural factor for social justice and prosperity. Trust in others reduces the cost of economic transactions, and democratic stability depends on it.

Harrison goes on to point out that the recent explosion in uncontrolled immigration and the over emphasis on multiculturalism has led to the United States becoming a salad bowl of individual parts, each with it's own flavor and unable to mix. His recommendations are:

We must calibrate the flow of immigrants into the US to the needs of the economy, mindful that immigration has adversely affected low-income American citizens, disproportionately African-American and Hispanic, as Barbara Jordan stressed as chair of the 1990s Immigration Reform Commission. But the flow must also be calibrated to the country's capacity to assure acculturation of the immigrants.......

As with immigration flows of the late 19th and early 20th centuries, an extensive program of activities designed to facilitate acculturation, including mastery of English, should be mounted.

Lawrence Harrison's article seem to overlook the fact that many others who immigrate here seem to assimilate quite well. These people are from the countries across the planet who have come here, brought their beliefs and traditions, and assimilated by learning the language and the culture. I have written about them several times on this blog.

On a supportive note, his article calls attention to many of the things that John Kao's Innovation Nation here and Frans Johansson 's Medici Effect write, are required for the United States to retain it's innovative position in the World.

Metacognition: The root of Innovation

Metacognition, thinking about thinking is a unique characteristic of the sapient species. This characteristic has been the catalyst of every invention and innovation know to mankind.

The World today, is teeming with innovations as never before. The past century saw more discoveries, inventions and the collection of knowledge than all the previous eons of World history combined. The first decade of the twenty-first century is turning out to challenge the twentieth century for innovations. What is unique, is that in the past century most of those innovations originated in the United States and Europe. Today, the innovations are blooming across the globe in places considered backwaters just a few decades ago.

Several articles caught my eye that illustrate this change. The first, an article about the Indian telecom company, Spice India, which has introduced India's Spice Corp launches $20 mobile phone. It is designed to provide basis phone service to people in developing nations who otherwise would not have access to communications.

Related to cell phone service is the concept of Celpay, where the cell phone is used to conduct secure banking transactions. This is especially helpful in Africa, where local banks are not available.In War-Torn Congo, Going Wireless to Reach Home - washingtonpost.com. This concept has paid peace dividends in the Congo where it is being used in a disarmament program. It has even been suggested as a way to pay Iraqi and Afgan forces, avoiding corrupt officials.

Steve DeAngelis takes up a similar subject in a recent post where he writes about Tailoring Products to Emerging Markets. He expands on an article in The Economist and two earlier posts he wrote about emerging markets. The gist of what he writes is that enterprises who want to expand to a truly global market must design their products to be desirable in emerging markets. This takes a good measure of innovation and thinking outside the box.
Steve explains his company this way:

Enterra Solutions was created to primarily to help businesses achieve this goal. I created a new Enterprise Resilience Management System that can strategically align an organization by identifying the critical assets and enabling business processes that are key for sustainability and competitiveness. It then identifies the security, compliance and performance rules or policies that apply to those assets and processes. The organization is then transformed by the fusion of those business processes and best business practices or rules sets into automated business processes that are dynamically updatable to changing management and market requirements. For the first time best business practices are infused into technology in a dynamically updatable fashion –- creating an advanced integrated management and technology platform for organizations competing in international marketplaces.

What this means is that to compete,"Old Core" companies will have to seek ways to tailor their products to the emerging markets and be willing to take the steps necessary to compete with innovators in the "New Core," who see emerging markets as just down the block from their own world.

Another post by Tom Barnett, calls attention to a discovery of Some new meta-analysis from New Core China. The article, again in The Economist details how Chinese scientists discovered the main biochemical pathways to drug addiction. They accomplished this by using existing studies and Meta-analysis.

It was followed by Tom's This week's column, where he writes about his recent trip to a conference on foreign investment in the Middle East and North Africa. He leads off by noting that kinetic energy in the kind currently being used across the region, will not be the road that leads to stability. He begins:

Two weeks ago I attended an international conference on foreign investment in the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) region held at a Dead Sea resort in Jordan, and it was an eye-opener. All the presentations and personal networking emphasized to this national security expert-cum-senior managing director just how minor a role our military will play in bringing lasting stability to the region.

All the above posts and articles serve as buoys that mark a lane that the United States can follow. We have used our massive power in the past century to tilt the World and set the frame work that has improved the lives of billions of people. Those people now infused with hope, are creating innovations, and reaching out to those still left marginalized. The United States has an opportunity to remember back to it's own frontier development roots and seek out new opportunities across the globe by recognizing that we live in a global community, whose survival requires engagement, not isolation.

The focus in the United States on the negative aspects of globalization and continued job loss has led to protectionism becoming a hot button in the coming election. A few weeks ago a company in India rolled out a $2500 car,Indians get ready for Nano . Meanwhile, last week as I sat waiting for my car to be serviced, I read an off road magazine loaded with ads for sand buggies priced from $25,000 to $78,000. We seem to have the talent to invent, we just seem to have lost our drive to seek out new opportunities, and are still content feeding on each others self-indulgent desires. This is almost an echo of 18th century Mandarins, content to believe that their world was superior to the up-starts from the West.

All we need is a healthy dose of Metacognition, and the will, to step into the intersection where ideas meet.

The World's Most Dedicated Historian

Historians have been known through history as recorders and observers of historical events. They seldom have to put their lives on the line to persevere. Ancient China has such a historian. He submitted to a painful and humilitating mutilation in order to complete his work. Today, we have a complete historical record of China from the first dynastys to the Western Han, thanks to one mans dedication to honor his father.

The events that occured during that time period, still resonate in today's world. For example, we know of Sun Tzu the great Chinese military strategist who wrote,The Art of War, because of a biography written by Sima Qian, historian to the Emperor Han Wudi. Sun Tzu's work survived and is the basis for the popular military strategy book. What Sima Qian provided was credibility that Sun Tzu existed and was an important figure during the Spring and Autumn Period of Chinese history.

Another important event described is the opening of the fabled Silk Road, the longest trading route in pre-modern times. The record of the opening of the route contains one of the greatest personal adventure stories of all time. We know of this adventure because of Sima Qian's dedication to complete his work against all odds. The Han Emperor Wudi dispatched an envoy, Zhang Qian to travel west to try and establish contact with potential Central Asian allies to combat the on going threat posed by the nomadic Xiongnu, or Huns. The trip not only was a great personal adventure, but Zhang Qian brought back information about Central Asia and beyond, that stimulated interest in cross-continent trade.

The elements of Sima Qian's own life forehadows the importance of the records he left behind. Born the son of the Prefect of the Grand Scribes of the Emperor Wu of Han, Sima assumed his fathers role after his death, and served the Emperor as Council to the emperor on general affairs of state. He began to compile the Shiji or Records of the Grand Historian during this time. He fell out of favor with the Emperor when he defended an accused general. For this defense, he was sentenced to death. As was the custom he was given the choice of buying his life, or submit to casteration. Sima Qian chose the latter, in order to complete his work and honor the work his father had begun.

He served three years in prison and upon release wrote the following.

"The losses he [Li Ling] had formerly inflicted on the enemy were such that his renown filled the Empire! After his disgrace, I was ordered to give my opinion. I extolled his merits, hoping the Emperor would take a wider view, but ...in the end it was decided I was guilty of trying to mislead the Emperor...
I had not the funds to pay a fine in lieu of my punishment, and my colleagues and associates spoke not a word in my behalf. Had I chosen suicide, no one would have credited me with dying for a principle. Rather, they would have thought the severity of my offense allowed no other way out. It was my obligation to my father to finish his historical work which made me submit to the knife...If I had done otherwise , how could I have ever had the face to visit the graves of my parents?
...There is no defilement so great as castration. One who has undergone this punishment is nowhere counted as a man. This is not just a modern attitude; it has always been so. Even an ordinary fellow is offended when he has to do business with a eunuch -- how much more so, then, a gentleman! Would it not be an insult to the court and my former colleagues if now I, a menial who sweeps floors, a mutilated wretch, should raise my head and stretch my eyebrows to argue right and wrong?
I am fit now for only guarding the palace women's apartments. I can hope for justification only after my death, when my histories become known to the world."[1]

We can only imagine what Sima Qian endured. His legacy lives on to remind us that principles count. We have few historians in Western Culture who would come close to Sima Qian's example. Perhaps Marc Bloch, who wrote The Historian's Craft while on the run from the German Gestapo during World War II comes close, Bloch was caught and excuted in 1944.

Please take the time to explore the world that Sima Qian described. The examples of intrigue, deceit and honor, are intermixed with stories of the common people, making Sima Qian unique among others of that era who only concentrated on the important events and figures.

China Blogs: Intersections of East and West

Anyone who has read my blog for any length of time, will become aware of my affection for Asia, and the people of that region. My introduction to Asia via the Vietnam War did not intially instill this affection. As I wrote earlier,A Resilient Nation, my feelings changed over time and a growing sense of awareness that the experiences, I collected since first setting foot in Asia, shaped and profoundly altered my feelings.

The importance of knowing Asia, and in paticular it's largest nation China is critical to everyone in the rest of the world. For the past two hundred years China remained an enigma, a fallen giant, first stripped of it's wealth, then it's dignity, by the incursion of foreign powers. Within a century it had fallen to be racked by invasion and revolution, that left it cut off behind a political curtain, from the rest of the world.

Today, China is remerging, using it's vast human capitol to make the goods that the rest of the world desires, but is unwilling to pay their own workers to produce. In an ironic way they are turning the tables on a world, that two hundred years ago provided the same benefit to China, and stripped off their ability to invest in their own innovations.

The best window on China today, is provided by the many blogs that are written describing everything from society and local flavor Shanghaiist blog, business information, All Roads Lead to China, to culture and scholarship, The China Beat. There are dozens of other blogs, each one has it's merits, they are not propoganda platforms written by secreted PLA opperatives, but written almost always by westerners, with a mission to open China to the world, one post at a time.

For example a post today on Shanghaiist, offers a great photo gallery.Opening Today: Shanghai 1990-1993 and Disappearing Shanghai. Another post today, on The China Beat takes notice of the circulation of people and ideas between China and the West. From East to West with Grant and Li*. The author of the post, Jeff Wasserstrom, offers up a look back in order to appreciate the future. He writes:

"The increasing intertwining of China and the West—and the excitement and anxiety it’s generating—has inspired breathless forward-looking commentaries about things like whose century this young one will be, as if it has to belong to either Us or Them. But what really seems in order during this countdown to the Olympics is slowing down and trying to catch our breath. Instead of peering anxiously ahead into the unknown, we would do well to pause, look back over our shoulders, and ask: Can we learn something useful from revisiting past moments when East-West exchanges increased? And those interested in the topic have some attractive places to turn just now, thanks to the recent appearance of four books and the mounting of two new exhibits."

The post goes on the offer links to books and even more interesting photo galleries that gives the reader a chance to visit 19th century China with the flick of a mouse. Wasserstrom's post is a treasure trove, that offers a look at China, usually available only to scholars. I recommend you take the time to read it and give yourself a brief look back in time.

In fact, take the time to check all the blogs listed above, they each offer a unique window on a country that we know precious little about.

Immigration+Diversity+Assimulation=Innovation

Several of my posts have been about the future. Studying history, is useful in gaining a threshold from which to offer ideas for the future. Much of the world has spent the last milinium working out the rule-sets that have led to the lowest levels of poverty and violence in the history of the world. This level is still not acceptable to reasonable and caring people. But, I sense a new awareness is springing forth from this nation. The past decades have seen the largest precentage of foreign born citizens in the United States in one hundred years. What does this mean for the United States?

Tom Barnett has a post today, pointing out that immigration has gone global,Heightened immigration is a global phenomenon. He goes on to ask.

Key question posed for demographically moribund Old Core states: do you encourage integration or just circulation? Make them citizens or keep them guest workers? We seem to focus on citizenry, the Middle East on guest workers, and Europe seems somewhere in between on the subject, yes?

Picking up on this question, the United States has always opted for assimulating immigrants and making them citizens.One hundred years ago, strict immigration quotas were imposed and the flow was cut to a trickle in order to process and assimulate the millions of new citizens. Historians will argue that it was either pure nativism, or common sense to stem the tide. Those new citizens went on to help build the American Century. Now as the grandchildren of those immigrants and those who proceeded them by centuries begin to retire and die, the need for an infusion of legal immigrants becomes all to apparent.

I recently read John Kao's book Innovation Nation, (Kao’s site is here) he addresses the need for the United States to regain it's role as the most innovative nation on earth. Another book crossed my path this week that fueled some thought about how this all comes together.

Frans Johansson, author of The Medici Effect has it availible for download on his web site for free, http://www.themedicieffect.com/. I took advantage of this fine offer and found the book dovetails nicely into ideas that John Kao writes about. It also speaks to some of the same issues addressed in the post by Tom Barnett.

Immigration leads to diversity by causing intersections of ideas to cross when different cultures meet on a middle ground. Johansson writes that stepping into those intersections is where the fusion of ideas occur. He writes of four things that will break down one's associative barriers, and by following at least one of them, will lead into an intersection of innovation.

➣ Exposed themselves to a range of cultures
➣ Learned differently
➣ Reversed their assumptions
➣ Took on multiple perspectives

The above is a snapshot of what has been occuring in the United States and much of the world for the past century. When a country avoids that intersection, out of fear or tribal prejudices, it will being to fade and loose ground to places where the above conditions are fertile. Today, there are over 38 million foreign born legal residences or citizens in the United States. Their children are growing up to be Americans with all the values we hold dear.

Anyone who has read my blog in any detail, will understand that I am of the much maligned "Boomer" generation and grew up with most of the notions that are characteristic of that cohort group. For much of my life I was the average over-consuming self indulgent boomer. Then I stepped into an intersection, when I met my wife, and came to know and love her family and the people of China. Later I really jumped into the intersection when I returned to school and conected with a new cohort group, made up of the children of people born in countries that I had only dreamed about. My interest expanded, from thinking just about U.S. history to include the history of the World. The ideas that fuel my thoughts now come at me like wheel-spokes, converging in an intersection of ideas. I am now enriched with new concepts, and I will spend the rest of my days exploring and sharing them with all who will listen.

This intersection of ideas transends to the political arena. I think a lot of the appeal that Barak Obama has for young people of all stripes, is that he is a product of the intersection of cultures, which allowed him to learn differently, and gain multiply prespectives. I do not agree with most of his positions, but the fact that we all take him seriously, and show him respect, is a testament to the strength of our system to grow by assimulation, which will lead to innovations.

Today's blog is somewhat comtemplative for me. I am humbled with the pride of knowing so many who are poised to make a difference in the future. These people know who they are, I have written about several of them here, and others who have read this blog and sent me personal comments are no less well thought of, readers of this site will come to know of your talents in future posts.

Final comments on the Roundtable on Science, Strategy and War

Col/Dr. Franz Osinga has posted a reply to the online reviews of his book Science, Strategy and War. He offered kind words for the review and commented that the United States is the best place for open discussions to take place. He went on to share the problems he had understanding John Boyd. The article is posted on zenpunidt.com Osinga Roundtable on Science, Strategy and War: The Author’s Reply and Chicago Boyz .

It was a pleasure to participate in this discussion and read the comments of the other participants. This type of forum, held online holds promise for future discussions. No great decision was reached, and I doubt if anyone's mind was changed by any of the arguments. But everyone gained by reading the thoughts of others on the same subject.

This intersection of views gives purchase to a new tool with which to discuss the revelevant topics of the day. A sort of Junto society if you will, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Junto where in 1727 Benjamin Franklin founded a society to discuss the issues of the day. The Junto's Friday evening meetings were organized around a series of questions that Franklin devised, covering a range of intellectual, personal, business, and community topics. These questions were used as a springboard for discussion and community action. In fact, through the Junto, Franklin promoted such concepts as volunteer fire-fighting clubs, improved security (night watchmen), and a public hospital.

Ever since I began to read blogs and now write my own, I am struck with the similarities of the original intent of Franklin's group and the online blog community today. Another point that todays blog community has with American history is the similar tone and function of the blogs, in relationship to the prevalence of pamplets, extolling the virtues and vices of life under the British. Much has been made by historians, that this grass roots element was insturmental in uplifting the American spirit towards revolution, by the reading of thousands of pamplets in taverns every night.

Today's blogs instead of talking of revolution, are formulating revolutionary thinking, where new ideas are given an intersection to meet, and reasonable men and women can offer thought and comment, in order to find new innovations for the challenges that confront us.

Metacognition on OODA and Innovation

The past week of postings have covered a diverse field of subjects, from emerging generations, to a changing America, and an examination of the OODA loop strategy, and how it relates to all aspects of life.

All of the above posts are linked to innovation and the adopting of new ideas and tools, that will effect human interaction. Steve DeAngelis adds to the ongoing discussion on innovation on his blog today entitled; Innovation Takes Hard Work. A most interesting innovation was shared by Steve with his readers, it came by way of an email.

"Speaking of intersectional innovation, I received an email from Frans Johansson with some interesting news for those of you who might not have read his best-selling book The Medici Effect. His publisher, the Harvard Business School Press, provided him with a pdf of the entire book, which can found on his web site www.themedicieffect.com. Anyone can download it, post it, and share it with a It's the first time HBR has ever done anything like this. It's pretty innovative in its own right.

This all leads back to is metacognition, thinking about thinking, it is how we learn to, visualize and adopt those innovations to survive and flourish. When a society, or a person becomes complacent and feels that all their needs are met, they begin to stagnate. In a nutshell, this seems to have aflicted the United States, we seem to have let ourselves go on a binge after the end of the Cold War. We were on top, secure, rich, and envied by most of the world. Now, we are waking up to find we've spent our savings on a 18 year self-indulgent party. This can happen to people too, they become secure in their enviornment and allow themselves to be emotionally drugged by the ease of life.

Take for example someone who gets a great education in a field they truly love. Then they take a job that provides a good income, but it's boring and mundane. That person soon finds themselves drugged by the paycheck. The chance to make a contribution fueled by their passion, is delayed and takes a backseat to having a secure life. One day, that person comes to work and finds that their position has been eliminated. They are faced with the reality of reinventing themselves. The fear of surviving kicks in and they observe their situation, then orient themselves to their choices, and then decide what action to take. Failing to do this leads to economic and social destruction.

Human nature when faced with these circumstances, will find a way to succeed. I myself was a product of this complacency. It took a system perturbation, to make me see my world through a horizontal lense and act.

Examples can be found in Dr. John Kao’s book, Innovation Nation (Kao’s site is here) of how businesses and countries when faced with dire futures found ways to adopt and innovate their way to success. His book is more than a primer on telling America how to regain it's position as the most innovative nation in history. It is a lesson to everyone who reads it, that the true source of innovation is ingrained in our common heritage as humans. It is up to each of us to think about our own OODA loop and how to use it.

Japan in the OODA loop

Yesterday, I posted a review of Col/Dr. Frans Osinga's book:Science, Strategy, and War: The Strategic Theory of John Boyd" as part of an on going roundtable discussion. Today, Tom Barnett posted a link and comments about Japan's changing business strategy, Japan gets more American, around the edges .

The Economist article Tom links,Going Hybrid: describes how Japan, faced with a 15 year drop in GDP, has begun to recover by being innovative, and creating a hybrid economic system based on both the Japanese and American systems.


The thing that struck me as I read Tom's post and the article is what Japan did was in line with John Boyd's OODA Loop theory . On a grand scale countries, can not react like fighter pilots and turn on a dime. But just for a momment, consider what Japan did.

Faced with a dropping GDP, they first "O" observed their situation, then they "O" oriented themselves to the options available, and made a, "D" decision to "A" act, and create a hybrid economic model to begin to turn things around and survive.

Anyway, just a brief example to feed into the discussion taking place over at Chicago Boyz about the above referenced book by Dr. Frans Osinga.

Roundtable on: Science, Strategy and War: The Strategic Therory of John Boyd

This post is written as part of an ongoing roundtable on Frans Osinga’s Science, Strategy, and War. over at Chicagoboyz.net and cross posted on zenpundit.

Col/Dr Frans P.B. Osinga of the Neatherlands Air Force wrote this work as his doctoral thesis. It is a supurb, clearly written journey into the mind of a great thinker. For myself, someone who is seeped in the essence of history that for the most part took place before John Boyd's time, I found the book a stimulating read.

John Boyd, known as 40-second Boyd, for always being able to defeat an opponet in air combat within that time constraint, was a maverick, who left no great written treatsie to explain his theories. What was left behind after his death were lecture notes and vu-graphs. Dr. Osinga carefully ginned those notes into a readable text and gave even the most un-military minded, a window on how not only John Boyd thought, but how humans and on a broader scale, all organisms adopt and survive.

John Boyd's legacy has been his OODA loop (Observe, Orient, Decide, Action), some would conclude that his contribution is revolutionary, or that it was based on selective cherry picking to support his thesis. The contributions of John Boyd are important because they draw from a vast store house of specialties, such as history, science, and behavior for support. He mulled these concepts over in his great mind and shared them in marathon lectures lasting up to 18 hrs.

The benefit of this work is to draw attention to Boyd's theory and stimulate thinking, something that in a modern technology centered universe, is often left to pre-concieved notions.

Boyd defined the Art of Success as:

Appear to be an unsolvable cryptogram while operating in a directed way to penetrate adversary vulnerabilities and weaknesses in order to isolate him from his allies, pull him apart, and collapse his will to resist;
yet;

Shape or influence events so that we not only magnify our spirit andstrength but also influence potential adversaries as well as the uncommittedso that they are drawn toward our philosophy and are empathetic toward our success.

Boyd concluded with:

The first sentence is an advice to remain, in the words of Sun Tzu, unfathomable to the enemy, yet operate coherently in several levels of war and across different dimensions.

Multi-sylable words for a simple concept, survival.

Today, strategists debate what generation of warfare we have now evolved too. I am no expert in those fields and would be treading on frozen celophane to try and cross that river. This book helps us understand the changing environment of both war and peace. In a historical prospective, we can reach back into earliest time, or to the remote jungles of New Guniea fifty years ago, when two men would meet in the forest; they would first, observe, then, orient to get best posture for survival, make a decision, kin or enemy, take action, fight or break bread. In the simplest terms, these decisions have played out in ever complicated scenarios ever since.

Dr. Osinga's book may turn out to be more read than any biography on John Boyd because he addresses the meat of what Boyd was trying to say in hundreds of lectures. He does this by providing the reader with Boyds ideas to ponder:

Categories of conflict:

Three kinds of conflict

Based on his ‘panorama’ of military history, Boyd argues that one can imagine three kinds of human conflict:

Attrition Warfare – as practiced by the Emperor Napoleon, by all sides during the 19th Century and during World War I, by the Allies duringWorld War II, and by present-day nuclear planners.

Maneuver Conflict – as practiced by the Mongols, General Bonaparte, Confederate General Stonewall Jackson, Union General Ulysses S. Grant, Hitler’s Generals (in particular Manstein, Guderian, Balck, Rommel) and the Americans under Generals Patton and MacArthur.

Moral Conflict – as practiced by the Mongols, most Guerrilla Leaders, avery few Counter-Guerrillas (such as Magsaysay) and certain others from Sun Tzu to the present.

In a historical sense looking back to draw from the examples of strategies that worked or failed are most helpful when one realizes that a saying frequently used by an old soldier I once knew, that the Army suffers from CRS, IE, can't remember scat, (my word to keep it cleaner) and it is still the norm today.

By using the above example of Attrition conflict and then compare it with Manuever conflict, one gets an image of how innovation can overcome conventional wisdom to win.

Spartans vs Thebans led by Epaminondas,who adopted the following strategy at Leuctra. The strong left wing advanced while the weak right wing retreated.
Or: Patton's end run manuever around the Germans and across France, vs Hodge's attrition warfare in the Battle of Hurtgen Forest.

And Moral, verus Attrition and Manuver conflict;

Going to Vietnam ready to fight WW III, and finding ourselves fighting a stealthy foe, reminicent of our own colonial indian wars.

Dr. Osinga concludes that John Boyd's work serves a greater purpose that his OODA loop idea.

Boyd’s ideas involve much more than exclusively the idea of ‘rapid OODA looping’ or a theory for maneuver warfare. Contradicting those who categorically dismiss the validity of the OODA concept, the idea was found to be deep and rich in ideas,explanations, hypotheses, propositions, concepts and suggestions concerning conflict in general. These concepts are firmly based on a thorough study of military history and informed by insights on learning and the behavior of social systems derived from various disciplines.

What this book serves to tell us is that in order to survive, one has to be ready to adapt. This is illustrated in our current strategy in the so called long war. The understanding of Boyd's strategy also relate in every aspect of life from the mundane to profound.

I would highly recommend this book to everyone.
"Science, Strategy, and War: The Strategic Theory of John Boyd"

Tom Barnett's "Fireside Chat" with the American People

Tom Barnett sits down in his column this week to have a short "fireside chat" with the American people. He writes things that a good leader should have the courage to say.

He begins: These are better days, just not for America right now

Americans feel down right now. Unhappy with our current leaders, we've not yet fallen in love with any prospective presidential candidates. The world seems more challenging than ever, with plenty of scary news out of the Islamic world hitting us amidst record oil prices. Most humbling, as our economy teeters on the edge of its first serious recession in decades, our rescuing "cavalry" turns out to be foreign wealth funds!

Wish we could get back to where we once belonged?

Read on at: KnoxNews.

Tom writes of 13 areas where we can make a silk purse out of a sow's hide.

One of them speaks to violence in the World.

Speaking of guns, let me also remind you that our planet has never been more peaceful: fewer wars, less civil strife and the smallest-ever percentage of humanity engaged in or preparing for mass violence. Washington may wage global war, but nobody else is.

To lend support to this observation is an article by Harvard Professor, Steven Pinker,Steven Pinker on Wikipedia where he addresses the declining trends in violence.: A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE

The other points contained in Barnett's column ring true. It's a message that any candidate truly interested in leading the American people should learn to articluate.

My Persian Sons

Over twenty years ago I met a young Persian woman, mother of two small boys, ages six and three. Fortune would have it, that we fell in love and I became step-father to these two boys. Time passed and we had our own son, a blend of the genes of Asia and Europe. The boys grew into men. Our son now 17, lives with his mother, our relationship parted, but the bond between my sons and I, remain as a father and his children.

Out of this relationship also came an understanding of the world that I never could have imagined thirty years ago. My two older boys are college graduates, in business together as partners, one is married and expecting his first child. My youngest son is about to graduate high school and wants to study political science or history, his sights set on international relations. I am amazed of his understanding of the World. The essay he wrote for college admission tells of a brief time he spent going to school in the United Arab Emirates, and the knowledge he gained about the diversity of the world and the importance of understanding all people.

I am not writing this for an exercise in bragging about my children. I do so because almost every day we are reminded about our problem with Iran. For the past twenty years I have watched as members of ex-pat Iranian families journey back and forth from the U.S. and Iran. I have met dozens of family members, coming from Iran. They all say, "We love America." To a person they long for a change in their countries political fortune. This silent passage for the past twenty years of people visiting and returning has set the corner stone for the future. When things change in Iran, and they will, the people will be ready to embrace the connections made in thousands of visits over the past years. In a series of articles linked on his blog today, Tom Barnett addresses the glimer of hope for that better relations with Iran will lead to a soft kill "alla Soviet Union."Bush seems ready to deal with everybody, even Iran—so far as Iraq is concerned
And just in, a New York Times article detailing tough economic times for Iran.
A Frail Economy Raises Pressure on Iran’s Rulers

When you strip off the veneer of idologies and get to know the people of a nation, they all are motivated by the same desire to survive and provide a better life for their children. I have found the same in almost every corner of the globe. As people diversify and make connections through business and personal relationships, the old custom to treat every stranger as a potential enemy dissipates. I am reminded of something I read in Jared Diamond's Guns Germs and Steel:
Amazon.com: Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies: Books ...
Diamond writes about a native tribesman from New Guniea who told of how it was until a short time ago, that when you met another man in the forest you carefully probed each other, hoping to find kinship, so that you could avoid mortal combat. Today, much of the world is past that point. The connected places are less likely to go to war with their neighbor nations because of kinship brought about by connections in trade, immigration, and trans-national marriage.

Don't believe this so? Marriage between nationalities in this country was a big taboo one hundred years ago. We now revel in: "My Italian Grandma taught me how to make such good spaggetti sauce." Or,"my Irish granddad could whip anybody's ass." I don't provide these examples to point out differences, but to show that the more we assimilate and accept diversity, the stronger and safer our nation becomes. Many of the men who fought World War II were the sons and grandsons of those who came here by standing in line at Ellis Island. We could have not been successful without their blood.

The next generation of talent, innovators and toilers in our nation carry names and the genes of hundreds of places we silently barred a few years ago. How we develop this talent and grow as a nation is the subject of my next post.

I will write more on this, when I discuss John Kao's book Innovation Nation: How America Is Losing Its Innovation Edge, Why It Matters and What We Can Do To Get It Back.