In my continuing effort to promote what I consider a must read for understanding America's role in the future, I am linking an update on Thomas Barnett's latest comments about his book, Great Powers. order GP.
Tom begins by explaining the importance of chapter Three, being the center-piece of the book.
The original title (checking my hard copy print-out) was "The American Arc." In an edit with Mark, I changed it to "The American Trajectory," which Neil liked a lot better. Mark came up with the subtitle, "Of Great Men and Great Powers"--a nice tie-back to the book as a whole.
I will say that I put in more effort on this chapter than any other. To me, it was always going to be the centerpiece of the book--as in, buy this logic and the entire book makes sense. In that way, it is very much like the large chapter 3 in PNM, meaning it's the intellectual anchor to the entire book.
I will say that I put in more effort on this chapter than any other. To me, it was always going to be the centerpiece of the book--as in, buy this logic and the entire book makes sense. In that way, it is very much like the large chapter 3 in PNM, meaning it's the intellectual anchor to the entire book.
If you look back over the blog, you realize how long it took me to write the intro and the five sections. I was going to have a sixth section about the post-Cold War world, but when I got to the end of the Cold War section, I realized that the first two chapters, plus my first two books, have covered that timeframe in great depth, so the repetition here wasn't worth pursuing. There is good repetition (establishing a theme) and there is everything-plus-the-kitchen-sink repetition, and I felt that re-covering the post-Cold War era would be too much.
Commenting from the viewpoint of someone who has been teaching American history to returning adults in pursuit of their BA's and MBA's, I naturally gravitate to seeing the value of this chapter in explaining the "American Brand" on globalization.
The section headers reveal Tom's wicked logic in writing this chapter.
"IN ORDER TO FORM A MORE PERFECT GLOBALIZATION ..." is obviously based on the preamble to the Constitution.
I started the section by stating that there are three fundamental reasons why American grand strategy matters more right now than any other country's and then, true to form (I just did it on the blog), I provided 4 reasons. I caught that one in a subsequent edit.
THE AMERICAN SYSTEM: PROPOSED AND IMPOSED
The early nod to the Brits here, courtesy of Walter Russell Mead, is amended later in the chapter, thanks to my education at the hands of the Dutch in The Hague last year. The Dutch example yields New Amsterdam/New York, and that centerpiece city defines a great deal of the American System's ethos. See Russell Shorto's The Island at the Center of the World, which the Dutch gave me as a going-away present, along with a gorgeous china plate. The Dutch maintain that the Glorious Revolution is oversold.
The early nod to the Brits here, courtesy of Walter Russell Mead, is amended later in the chapter, thanks to my education at the hands of the Dutch in The Hague last year. The Dutch example yields New Amsterdam/New York, and that centerpiece city defines a great deal of the American System's ethos. See Russell Shorto's The Island at the Center of the World, which the Dutch gave me as a going-away present, along with a gorgeous china plate. The Dutch maintain that the Glorious Revolution is oversold.
THE AMERICAN SYSTEM: TESTED AND TRANSFORMED
The track-back here goes to Andrew Jackson.
The track-back here goes to Andrew Jackson.
THE AMERICAN SYSTEM MATURED, THEN EXTRAPOLATED: My original was something along the lines of "The American Global System Proposed, Then Imposed."
A GLOBAL AMERICAN SYSTEM, AN AMERICAN CENTURY
Great bit about the logic of diplomacy and how the neocons forget that history.
I start this section with a quick, overarching history, because I want to then move into the 14 points section where I make direct comparisons between Wilson (proposing) and FDR/Truman (imposing). I just felt that doing the former and then the latter would be too repetitive, so better to do them both comparatively in one fell swoop.
THE GLOBAL AMERICAN SYSTEM BECOMES GLOBALIZATION
I start with a mini-history of the Cold War before turning to my two big characters: Nixon and Reagan.
.... My ode to Nixon and Kissinger uses both of their autobiographies and Margaret MacMillan's book on Nixon meeting Mao. Basic point: Reagan completes Nixon like Truman completed FDR, but without Nixon and FDR, neither Reagan or Truman would have been possible in terms of their global impact.
Adding my two cents, the United States had always been interested in globalization. Even Presidents most can't remember, played an important role. Consider the actions of our 10th. John Tyler who saw the importance of the Asian Pacific region to trade. He was the first President to send a diplomatic mission to China which was able to open consular and commercial relations between China and the United States. This led to having the same trade concessions that the then "Great Power" Britain enjoyed.
Our 11th. James K. Polk, Tyler's successor, had as one of his "Great Measures" the goal to acquire Mexican California. Gold had not been discovered there yet, but Polk wanted California and its magnificent San Francisco Bay as the American gateway to trade with China and other Asian nations. Polk was worried that other nations, such as England or France, might take California if the United States did not act. Can you imagine the quality of life we American's might be enjoying had these two Presidents not had the vision to look to connecting the Pacific region? Sailing east, past Europe and Africa or through the Straits of Magellen would have left us a pawn to other powers.
The actions of Tyler and Polk, helped to trigger our ability to reach the position in history that makes reading Great Powers: America and the World After Bush an important guidebook to our future as a nation.
Read more:
Chapter four, addresses the coming realignment and as Tom writes, "The race to the bottom of the pyramid."
There was no question in my mind that the realignment chapters would start with economics. This goes back with me all the way to the original Brief (looking at alternative global futures in the 1995-96 timeframe) where I did the six-lenses (econ, pol, tech, soc, enviro, sec). You always start with the economics when you're a determinist like me (the one part of Marx I still like).
The title is clearly a take on C.K. Prahalad's very cool book, The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid. He and I gave dueling briefs at a Highlands Forum (special floating think tank community that convenes several times a year to look at issues for a senior defense office) that wanted to examine the SysAdmin concept (back when DoD 3000 was taking shape and new hires to that policy office were given PNM as source reading). C.K. and I bonded immediately. He told me that PNM was the pol-mil book he would have written if he had gone in the field, and I basically told him the same about his book and development economics, so we were like blood brothers on the spot. I felt the same way when I finally met Martin Wolf in Australia at the regional Davos meet. It's just that cool clicking together that some people get to enjoy. Plus, both C.K. and Martin are just such cool, fun, friendly guys that it's just neat to hang around them for a bit and be able to say you know them.
The section headers:
THE UNDENIABLE TRAJECTORY: DENG CHOSE WISELY
The tagline here was inspired by that old knight at the end of the third Indiana Jones movie who, when Indy asked about the dead guy in the corner, replied, "He chose unwisely." I always loved that line.
The tagline here was inspired by that old knight at the end of the third Indiana Jones movie who, when Indy asked about the dead guy in the corner, replied, "He chose unwisely." I always loved that line.
THE AMERICAN SYSTEM PERTURBED: 3 BILLION NEW CAPITALISTS REGISTER THEIR DEMAND
The "3 Billion" bit comes from Clyde Prestowitz, whose book I cite earlier in the text. I met him in Australia at the Davos regional meet too, and I found him a fairly prickly porcupine. Smart guy, but very sarcastic and cynical. I seemed like an innocent angel next to him on the two panels we shared.
The "3 Billion" bit comes from Clyde Prestowitz, whose book I cite earlier in the text. I met him in Australia at the Davos regional meet too, and I found him a fairly prickly porcupine. Smart guy, but very sarcastic and cynical. I seemed like an innocent angel next to him on the two panels we shared.
THE NEW RULES: CHINA BREAKS THE MOLD OR MERELY RECASTS IT?
This section is based on the Baumol et al. book, Good Capitalism, Bad Capitalism, which I highly recommend. The first version of this section was pretty long, and I went whole-hog on the book and gave all sorts of additional reasoning and even a model of sorts regarding evolution of economies.
This section is based on the Baumol et al. book, Good Capitalism, Bad Capitalism, which I highly recommend. The first version of this section was pretty long, and I went whole-hog on the book and gave all sorts of additional reasoning and even a model of sorts regarding evolution of economies.
THE NEW NORMAL: DEFAULTING TO THE BEIJING CONSENSUS
I thought the wordplay here was also neat in a financial sense (like defaulting on loans or debt), especially when linked to China.
I thought the wordplay here was also neat in a financial sense (like defaulting on loans or debt), especially when linked to China.
I definitely get off on a rant against neo-Marxism here, but it truly represents my passionate rejection of that bullshit analysis. I got fed all manner of this junk in college in the early 1980s. It sucked then and it sucks now. And I especially like sticking it to this crowd during the current financial crisis, because it's one thing to be a fan of capitalism when it hums along and another thing to keep believing in it when it screws up royally. Yes, this ninnies have their moment now, but that's all it is.
THE GLOBAL ACCELERANT: RUSHING TO SETTLE FRONTIERS
Starts with the globalization-replication slide I still use in the brief.
(188)
The peace dividend/grand strategic argument that now serves as the opening section of my brief.
(190)
China gets old before it gets rich.
Starts with the globalization-replication slide I still use in the brief.
(188)
The peace dividend/grand strategic argument that now serves as the opening section of my brief.
(190)
China gets old before it gets rich.
THE INESCAPABLE REALIGNMENT: REMAPPING FAKE STATES
Could have done some bit here on a new global financial order, but I wanted to keep the book/chapter more focused on the Gap
(197)
Paul Collier's stuff really is brilliant. His Bottom Billion deserved every award it got.
Favorite bit extrapolated by me: only 1% of Core features landlocked, resource-deprived countries, but one-third of Africa suffers this postcolonial fate.
Could have done some bit here on a new global financial order, but I wanted to keep the book/chapter more focused on the Gap
(197)
Paul Collier's stuff really is brilliant. His Bottom Billion deserved every award it got.
Favorite bit extrapolated by me: only 1% of Core features landlocked, resource-deprived countries, but one-third of Africa suffers this postcolonial fate.
THE BETTER NORMAL: RACING TO THE BOTTOM OF THE PYRAMID
(202-04)
My ode to Prahalad.
(205-06)
Bit on Africa, leveraging the World Bank report. I wrote that in, and then later repurposed as tighter column. Mark cut the original out completely, but like before, I talked him into putting back at least the tighter, column version. So the columns saved two chunks of this chapter.
(202-04)
My ode to Prahalad.
(205-06)
Bit on Africa, leveraging the World Bank report. I wrote that in, and then later repurposed as tighter column. Mark cut the original out completely, but like before, I talked him into putting back at least the tighter, column version. So the columns saved two chunks of this chapter.
Read more:
Director's Commentary On Chapter Four: The Economic Realignment: Racing To The Bottom Of The Pyramid
A complete list of Tom's books The Pentagon's New Map, Blueprint For Action, and Great Powers.
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