An Un-Splendid Little War

John Milton Hay was appointed Secretary of State by President William McKinley. Years later when Theodore Roosevelt occupied the White House, Hay wrote the President about the Spanish American War. In that letter he summarized the conflict with a quote that came to be linked with the first war of American expansion beyond her borders. He called it:

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"A Splendid Little War"

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In the Kremlin this weekend, one wonders if Putin's advisors would be speaking in the same terms, more importantly is how the governments of nations on Russia's borders and in the core states will react to this war. Without desending into choosing sides the links below lay out a brief look back at the war between Russia and Georgia and try and create a historical timeline to study the course of the war. The opinion of what this all means are colored by the political lenses of the observer. Some see this as a return to the "Cold War" and others, that this is Russia's version of America's Grenada war in 1984. Still others, with a more horizontal vision look beyond to see the events as the growing pains of a paranoid nation trying to find it's way.

Russia has searched for a post-Soviet identity since that empire's stunningly sudden collapse two decades ago. For now, Moscow is nothing more than an immature energy conglomerate masquerading as a government. Learning what he did from the Bush administration's lengthy - and now exhausted - bout of unilateralism, Putin confuses the power of supply with the power of demand, thinking he holds all the cards.

Thomas PM Barnett, 2008

We begin our look back at the last week with.

A Two-Sided Descent Into Full-Scale War - Peter Finn, Washington Post

Georgia and Russia were on a collision course.

In three hours, full-scale war would begin.

With a huge air, land and sea campaign, Russian forces routed the Georgians in the following days and advanced far into Georgian territory, overrunning major cities and military bases. An ensuing uproar in the West, accusing Russia of using excessive force, has clouded details of how the war began.

Interviews with Georgian leaders, Russian officials, Western diplomats and Bush administration officials, together with briefings by the Russian military in Moscow, show that a series of escalating military moves by each side convinced the other that war was imminent.

Georgia - CIA World Factbook

Russia - CIA World Factbook

What follows is a backward look at the war as it unfolded. the BBC travels backward day by day to the beinning.

Day-by-Day: South Ossetia Crisis - BBC News

And as the guns fall silent, the anger persists as it has for a thousand years.

After Battle, Anger Follows Ethnic Lines - Tavernese and Siegel, New York Times

Sunday Readings:

Weekend Reading Recommendations by Fabius Maximus

Influencing Russia by Steve DeAngelis, Enterra Solutions

Barnett: Response to Georgia conflict: firm but moderate

Another Fine Kettle of Fish!

When something terrible befell the comedy team of Laurel and Hardy, Oliver Hardy would exclaim, "That's another fine kettle of fish you've got us in," to his witless partner Stanley. The private conversations in Western capitols this week were probably in spirit with Hardy's sentiments.

As the forces of Russia begin to slowly observe the cease fire and move back at a snail's pace. The next phase of sorting out what went wrong and how to attempt to deal with the future begins.

Mark Safranski at Zenpundit leads off with this analysis of what is shaping up to be a failure to have any policy for the unexpected.

Russia Policy: Trying to Make A Virtue Out of Having Ceded the Initiative

I had actually intended to post briefly on the implications of the Russo-Georgian War for State vs. State warfare and 4GW but today’s reactions by the Bush administration and Senators McCain and Obama are a more important concern. The United States has no strategic policy in regard to Russia - and if the statements of the candidates for president are to be believed - we won’t have one in the next four years either....

Now to be fair, many of the actions taken by the President are sound and wise ones. Russia needs to feel significant pushback here and Bush is doing that very firmly and responsibly - and without much help from our allies other than President Sarkozy.....

Deciding what our long-term interests are in the region and what our relationship with Russia should be is something seventeen years overdue and presidential candidates who have no clue, left to their own devices, of what to do or, who take foreign policy advice from a paid agent of a foreign government, worry the hell out of me.

Other important blogs weigh in with the latest.

He Who Has the Biggest Gun from Information Dissemination

Flash Point: South Ossetia (14 August) at Small Wars Journal

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And concluding with this Does war work? from Kings of War

Update:

This just in from Thomas Barnett who draws from his first career as a Soviet expert, to offer these wise words. Bush, so far, has played it cool on Russia