Early Announcement: Xenophon’s Anabasis Roundtable

Xenophon's Ten Thousand

The Route of the Ten Thousand

In a bit of cross posting I am joining my fellow bloggers, Mark of Zenpundit and Lexington Green of Chicago Boyz in announcing an upcoming roundtable Announcing ChicagoBoyz Roundtable, Fall 2009 to discuss and examine Xenophon's The Anabasis of Cyrus. The Greek term anabasis refers to an expedition from a coastline up into the interior of a country.

I will post more on this as we get closer to the date. Those who would like to join in contact Lex or Mark at the links above and leave a comment. All others, drop a few bucks and buy the book and feel free to join the comments as the roundtable evolves.

The Coming of the Fourth American Republic

First Republic

Second Republic

Third Republic

Zenpundit and Fabius Maximus are two of the most astute observers in the blogosphere and both have linked the this insightful article, well worth the time to read and digest. Written by James V. DeLong in The American: The Journal of the American Enterprise Institute the article is summarized this way by Fabius.

Summary: Slowly realization spreads that we are at the end of an era. Here is an interesting look at one aspect of that transition, and what might lie ahead. This is just a brief excerpt; I recommend reading it in full! At the end are links to other posts on this site about the death of the American Constitutional regime — and what might come next.

The premise is that the United States is about to embark on the Fourth Republic after the initial founding of the nation, followed by the Civil War and then the New Deal/Great Society run of the special interests. The author surmises that we are on the threshold of a major shift in the direction of the country, hence the Fourth Republic. In cautionary terms DeLong writes.

While we await events, none of this analysis should be regarded as a counsel of pessimism. Political arrangements should change with time and experience, and to expect the political architects of any era to foresee all the problems inherent in their institutions is to demand the impossible. By 2090, it will probably be time for the Fifth American Republic, and, Heaven willing, more after that.

On the other hand, it would be unwise to treat the issues with anything other than utter sobriety. The nation made a fundamental political transition peacefully on one occasion, and only with appalling bloodshed on another, and it is hard to buy ammunition these days because the dealers’ shelves are bare. So all patriots would be well advised to pick up a copy of Crane Brinton’s classic The Anatomy of Revolution, and figure out how we can achieve the necessary segue to the Fourth Republic without becoming a chapter in the next edition.

Read more:The Coming of the Fourth American Republic

April and the Return to Conflict.

Just to see if you're paying attention!

Piracy April 2009

April is the first full month of spring and just as life begins to bloom after a long winter of dormancy, the human pursuit of war stirs itself and becomes manifest amid to the pockets of disconnected societies. Piracy took center stage for a while this month as Americans celebrated the rescue of Captain Richard Phillips, just before they were forced to return to navel gazing and to consider national self-flagellation as a way to make amends for decisions made by the previous administration over the use of waterboarding to extract information from terror suspects.

While all this is going on, piracy has been on the rise for the first three months of 2009, with April now standing at 44 seizures of ships by pirates around the world. Galrahn of Information Dissemination, has two posts among many that focus on this problem. The first recounts the record set this month for pirate attacks.

Galrahn's final comments set the tone to backtrack and read the whole post and examine the accompanying map that illustrates the growing menace of global piracy.

Given how the pirates have picked up on modern technology, they are probably watching the weather just like the experts. In the case of piracy in the Strait of Malacca earlier this decade, the massive south east Asian tsunami played a major role in curbing the activity. One thing to watch for is a tsunami that could potentially hit one of these pirate cities and wipe out the boats used for piracy. Weather is a significant factor one should always keep an eye on.

Read more:
April a Record Month for Modern Piracy

In this second post, Galrahn offers several options that have an historic ring that will leave an astute reader humming the Marines Hymn.

From the Halls of Montezuma,
To the shores of Tripoli;
We fight our country's battles
In the air, on land, and sea.....

This analysis assumes that if the policy regarding the use of military power stays at the current level, which is in essence ineffective despite current record levels of international naval assistance (which will dwindle in the weeks ahead), the problem will get worse as the weather improves over the next few months and the Obama administration will see its leadership credibility globally erode. This is a potentially debatable position, but history does not suggest ineffective action in the face of serious security problems that are only getting worse leads to good things.

This raises the question, if we know the diplomatic efforts are going to take a long time to develop, what tactical actions should the Obama administration approve for the military to buy time for the long term Somalia policy to form? This analysis looks at three possibilities: engage from the air, engage on land, and engage at sea.

Read the whole post to see what tactic Galrahn favors in this well thought out essay.
Tactical Options for Fighting Somali Pirates


As a nation we struggle to swat away at the bees that seem to sting us at will while our elected officials dither in a return to hyper-divided politics along two fault lines. Big war industrial vs the COIN advocates and ideologues who demand prosecution for past sins vs let's do anything short of pulling fingernails to protect the country. The idea of redirecting the country efforts will take a consensus of agreement like those worked out by such visionary leaders as Theodore Roosevelt, FDR, and Eisenhower. Many had high hopes that President Obama would be in the mold of these past leaders whom brought the experience of consensus building to the office. The ball is in his court as to see if he is able to keep the ideologues of both sides from tearing the country to shreds under his watch.

Meanwhile around the world, several countries have begun to redirect the focus of their national defense posture to reflect the changes that they perceive in the future. The following links take a brief look as some of the alignments by two of our allies and a troubling development by the hermit kingdom.

Great Britain

This short article by Isabel Oakeshott and Michael Smith, The Times looks at Britain's plan to focus on the future by adjusting her forces to confront the kinds of wars she has fought the past half century.

BRITAIN’S special forces are to be dramatically increased under plans being drawn up by the government.

John Hutton, the defence secretary, will this week signal radical reform of the armed forces in response to “lessons learnt” from the war in Afghanistan, where specialised units are seen to be playing a vital role.

Read more: SAS to Expand in Army Shake-up

Australia
Is also planning for contingencies as they encounter a new pallet of defense issues as noted in this article by Patrick Walters in The Australian.

Kevin Rudd is set to announce Australia's biggest military build-up since World War II, led by a multi-billion-dollar investment in maritime defence, including 100 new F-35 fighters, a doubling of the submarine fleet, and powerful new surface warships.

Read more:White Paper Orders Huge Military Build-up

In a companion piece, Patrick Walters takes a closer look at the proposed increase in Australian Naval power.

The naval and air power build-up is the key component in a more powerful defence force that the Prime Minister sees as essential to preserving Australia's security in a more turbulent world.
The white paper is the latest manifestation of Rudd's ambition for Australia to be able to act as a significant middle power in the Asia-Pacific region.

It is also a recognition that the power balances in our region are undergoing a historic shift with the rise of China and India.

Rudd understands that in a generation's time Beijing's formidably expanding military power could challenge the long-held military dominance of the US in east Asia with destabilising consequences for regional security.

Read more: Naval Boost a Bid for Regional Power

And finally, the hermit kingdom is again acting like a sociopathic step-child, who finds that when the focus seems to stray from providing them handouts, that banging nuclear fuel rods together brings the great powers running with armloads of goodies to sustain them until the warehouses are empty.

North Korea

This in from an article in the New York Times by CHOE SANG-HUN.

SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea announced Saturday that it had begun reprocessing thousands of spent nuclear fuel rods, adding that it would use plutonium extracted from the rods to make nuclear weapons.

The announcement came hours after the United Nations Security Council placed three North Korean companies on a United Nations blacklist for aiding North Korea’s missile and nuclear programs.

Reading about them has become tedious, as they stick their proverbial thumb in the eye of the six powers and the UN.

Read it if you want: North Korea Says It Has Restarted Nuclear Work

Well, that should give any reader enough to contemplate and for most, drive them to flee to their favorite spring resting place to in bide in an adult beverage. Let us hope that We as a nation keep our eye on the ball and the future. It is not the wall we must worry about running into, it is the small things we can trip over. Looking back with a vengeful eye will cause us to trip and fall and break our neck over one of those small things in our path.

Humble Home Office Challenge

Ever innovative Mark the zenmaster of Zenpundit put up a challenge to fellow bloggers to share images of their workspaces. He was inspired by this office by Thomas P.M. Barnett.

and added his own and Dave Dilegge of Small Wars Journal.

My own humble cockpit where my ideas take shape graces the top of this page. The only thing missing is a Smithwick's Ale and a Churchill. To be true, the Churchill gets it's excercise on the patio where all good bloggers go to replenish their thoughts amid cigar smoke and sips of ale.

A Question of National Resolve

This Saturday gives us a chance to reflect on the current condition of Americans ability to stay the course in the face of the current pounding waves of bad economic news and two war fronts that continue to bleed our nation as if a dozen leeches slowly weakened our national resolve.

Fabius Maximus with an inquiring mind offers these related posts questioning whether Americans have lost the ability to rise to the challenge when crisis looms.

This question was raised during a few rounds of cyber tennis between two experts on 4th generation warfare, Chet Richards and John Robb — posting at their websites Defense and the National Interest and Global Guerrillas. This being an open game in which any number can play, this post discusses one aspect of their debate. First, a recap of the opening rounds. These highlight only part of the debate; these posts are worth reading in full.

Read More: Are Americans easily panicked cowards? I think not, but many experts disagree.

In this next post, Fabius turns to 9/11 as an example that America's response has revealed us to be like a powerful bull, that has charged about at waving red flags, (the global war on terror) only to find ourselves pricked by the thrusts of many banderillas, that have weakened our resolve and left us weary of continuing the engagement. He questions that 9/11 revealed us to be so armored against a major threat, that when something tiny on the grand scale gets inside our armor and bits us, we react as if we were given a contagion that now threatens to cripple our national resolve.

Fab begins.

With a single strike al Qaeda changed the course of the world’s hegemonic state, by many measures the most powerful nation (relative to its time) that the world has ever seen. They did this at a negligible cost in money and manpower — never have so few changed so many with so little effort. Our counter-strikes have damaged or crippled al Qaeda, but its leaders may see al Qaeda as the vanguard of their movement, not its body — and hence expendable.

9/11 changed the course of America in terms of both internal and external policy, changing both in ways almost certainly inimical to our long-term strength and prosperity. Al Qaeda manipulated America as a matador does with a bull, waving a cape to so that the bull charges into position for the thrust of the sword.

Read More: Was 9/11 the most effective single military operation in the history of the world?

In counterpoint I offer these two posts that draw attention to American resolve. One is at the personal level and found among the men we have sent to Afghanistan to blunt the thrusts of the metaphoric AQ matador's sword.

I wholeheartedly agree with abu mugqawama's endorsement of this article in the New York Times last week. Okay, this is great reporting.

ALIABAD, Afghanistan — The two Army lieutenants crouched against boulders beside the Korangal River. Taliban gunfire poured down from villages and cliffs above, hitting tree branches and rocks and snapping as the bullets passed over the officers’ helmets.


An American platoon was pinned in the riverbed, which had blossomed into a kill zone. One squad and the radio operator were trapped in a wheat field on the far side. An improvised bomb had just exploded in their midst. The blast wave had blown the soldiers down, and, though the platoon did not yet know it, killed a soldier on the trail.


The photo essay that accompanies this article is amazing as it conveys courage under fire and then the anguish of losing a comrade


Turning our attention to American innovations that have change the world is this post by Steve DeAngelis of Enterra Solutions who expands on a recent Time Magazine article.


There is a saying in Europe about American sports that goes something like this: "When we hold a world championship, we actually invite the world." It's a reference to events like baseball's World Series. With the exception of baseball, I think Americans have become more politically correct in they how depict their sporting championships. However, a recent issue of Time Magazine, which listed "10 Ideas Changing the World Right Now," makes one wonder if there really is a broader world out there. As you read through the ideas, many of them seem to ignore most of the rest of the world. There are exceptions -- ideas that have broader application -- but one can only conclude that Time's world view is fairly narrow when it comes to "world changing" ideas. The list was brought to my attention while reading Tom Barnett's Weblog. Let's look at the ideas.


Read more: Time Magazine's Small World


The posts above are offered to stimulate thoughts about America and our national resolve to embrace the future and not shrink into a corner like a wounded titan, awaiting the final thrust.

History May Not Repeat, But Do Generations?

ROTC Graduates

Vicksburg, May 22 1863

USS Zeilin. burial service off Tarawa, Nov, 16 1943

Generations

The debate over history repeating itself has been the fodder for historians and pundits of all stripes since the earliest records were kept. The recent interest in looking at history from a more social aspect has given rise to examine the influence that a generational cohort group may have had on the course of human civilization. Seventeen years ago, a book was published that traced the generation cycle through American history and into the future. Generations: The History of America's Future, 1584 to 2069 by Neil Howe and William Strauss, has become a sort of Rosetta stone for defining generational characteristics.

Thomas Barnett author of Great Powers: America and the World After Bush, has used the theme of generational patterns in three of his successful books to illustrate how the failures of some generations to lead with vision will pass to introduce the next generation that will be instilled with the traits that propelled this country forward in the past, to achieve the next great rung on the ladder of civilization.

My cruising of the blogs today uncovered this revealing post on Tom Ricks Foreign Policy Blog where he writes about a new phenomenon that is being seen on the campuses of top universities.

It immediately brought to mind themes I had read in Howe and Strauss and Tom Barnett's books and in my own study of American history.

Ricks begins:

After I spoke at Princeton the other night, I was surprised by the stream of young men who came up to told me that they are joining the Marines or Army after graduation.

On reflection, I shouldn't have been, because lately I've been noticing this phenomenon of graduates of elite universities going into the military. This isn't a tidal wave, or even a fad, but I think a steady self-selection.

Read more:

From Ivy League to olive drab

In a short and insightful post, Ricks has pulled at a thread that caused me to think back to my own families past history when a generation of young men, would step forward to take up the banner to serve their country. Working backward, my father, Jay B. Wade, joined the Navy at 17, the day after Pearl Harbor and served in the Pacific, taking part in operations that stretched from Guadalcanal, to the Aleutians, back to Tarawa and after a short break, on to the final day off the coast of Japan. A Thanksgiving Tribute to my Dad and Tribute continued: My father wasn't an Ivy League college boy, far from it he had dropped out of high school to help support his siblings after their mother died. What possessed him to join? He was only 17 and needed his father's permission, but he went willingly and as he later related. "It was the right thing to do."

Looking back further in time, I am reminded of two great uncles whom took up the cause of preserving the Union and ending slavery in the Civil War. One, Sgt. John Campbell, joined the 77th Illinois Infantry and fell on the ramparts of Vicksburg May 22, 1863. His brother William upon learning of his brothers death, left home to find out what happened and joined the 2nd Illinois Artillery in New Orleans, to fulfill his brother's commitment. Ironically, they were part of a reactive generation whose traits in youth were marked with rebelliousness, perhaps an insight on the level of our brutal self inflicted Civil War that saw kin kill kin in a savage fury that would not be seen again until the summer of 1914.

ILLINOIS CIVIL WAR DETAIL REPORT

Name
CAMPBELL, JOHN F
Rank
SGT
Company
A
Unit
77 IL US INF
Residence
PEORIA, PEORIA CO, IL
Age
22
Height
5' 8
Hair
LIGHT
Eyes
BLUE
Complexion
DARK
Marital Status
SINGLE
Occupation
FARMER
Nativity
PEORIA, PEORIA CO, IL
Service Record
Joined When
AUG 7, 1862
Joined Where
PEORIA, IL
Joined By Whom
M V HOTCHKISS
Period
3 YRS
Muster In
SEP 2, 1862
Muster In Where
PEORIA, IL
Remarks
KILLED IN CHARGE ON ENEMY'S WORKS AT VICKSBURG MISS MAY 22, 1863

.

Name
CAMPBELL, WILLIAM W
Rank
JR 1LT
Company
A
Unit
2 IL US L ART
Residence
PEORIA, PEORIA CO, IL
Age
26
Service Record
Joined When
DEC 16, 1863
Joined Where
NEW ORLEANS, LA
Joined By Whom
MAJ MALONEY
Period
3 YRS
Muster In
DEC 16, 1863
Muster In Where
NEW ORLEANS, LA
Muster Out
JUL 27, 1865
Muster Out Where
SPRINGFIELD, IL
Muster Out By Whom
CPT HALL
Remarks
COMMISSIONED CAPTAIN BUT NOT MUSTERED

American history is filled with stories of millions of young men and women who found pride and purpose in assuming a civic responsibility. We seemed to be blessed with such a generation again as those born in what has been defined as the Echo Boomers seem to be instilled with many of the characteristics possessed by their grandparents of the G.I. Generation.

A Calm Voice in the Midst of Frenzy

Thomas Barnett has boldly penned an article appearing in this months issue of Esquire that looks at the Inside the War Against Robert Gates which has resonated in cross postings and links around the web.

.

Tom begins:

.

When Bob Gates took over as Secretary of Defense at the end of 2006, he stated unequivocally that one of his primary goals would be to improve America's ability to perform in post-war environments — to better fight an insurgency, really. Cognizant that our military might in conventional, big-war capabilities was driving all of our real-time opponents toward pronouncedly asymmetrical, small-wars strategies, Gates decided to end — finally, stemming from the days well before Donald Rumsfeld — the Defense Department's institutional bias against preparing for such "low-intensity" scenarios. Low intensity, he understands, has become the all-too-intense norm of modern warfare.

The subheadings draw attention the the best analysis yet of Gates vision with these tidbits of insight from Barnett to whet your appetite to read more.

Bludgeoning the Budget with a Google Search

America hasn't fought a war against another great power since 1945, coincidentally the year we obtained and first used nuclear weapons. Since then, no two great powers armed with nukes have ever gone to war — one of the longest droughts since nation-states were invented. Since the Cold War, meanwhile, our global-security environment has witnessed a serious ratcheting-up of transnational terrorism, failed states, internal strife, and all the accompanying interventions by outside great powers and international organizations.

Frankly, given the profound financial interdependence among the world's great powers today, the prospects for great-power war — conventional or otherwise — are arguably dimmer than they've ever been in modern history. Layer on additional environmental interdependencies generated by climate change, and the case against America being drawn into great-power war over the next fifty years seems all the stronger.

Accepting the Realities of Terrorism (Pirates Included)

At the end of the day, then, our government needs to ask itself if the new defense budget moves America closer to or further away from the world as we find it evolving. As somebody who's argued for many years about "downshifting" the Pentagon's strategic perspective — and resources — from large conflicts to small ("system administration," as I like to call it), Gates turns out to be the seminal figure I hoped he would become. Assuming his continued success, he arguably goes down as President Obama's most influential first-term cabinet pick.

After reading this piece it is know wonder that bloggers from diverse POV's have linked this article. Just a few of those who have linked. H/T to Tom's blog.

+ John Robb

+ War Is Boring

+ Hootsbuddy's Place

+ Random Thoughts

+ Free Republic

+ WSJ's Gates feed

+ Yahoo! Buzz

+ digg

+ regator

+ Genwi

Joining in with a naval centric view of Gates goals is this from Galrahn of Information Dissemination.

Unless there was any question where this is heading, I think it has become pretty clear what the Secretary of Defense thinks.

"As we saw last week, you don't necessarily need a billion-dollar ship to chase down a bunch of teenage pirates," Gates said.Although he has praised the precision training of Navy SEAL snipers who killed three pirate hostage-takers Sunday, the secretary was referring to the imbalance of massive U.S. warships and dazzling weaponry corralling the pirates' tiny lifeboat. The Somali pirates were armed with automatic weapons and pistols and holding an American cargo ship captain for ransom.

Galrahn's final paragraph brings to mind our experiences in the last year of the War in the Pacific when thousands of kamikaze pilots swarmed over Americans ships. Our only defense then besides hundreds of aircraft was putting a gun on every inch of every vessel and blasting the sky with millions of rounds of ammo.

Hopefully Gates starts asking tough questions about asymmetrical threats. If you think Somali piracy is challenging, break out Google Earth and take a closer look at Iran. There are over 1500 armed small vessels in Iran, and they are much better armed than Somali pirates. A lot of countries have similar capabilities, and after seeing the worlds major naval powers get flanked all over the Indian Ocean, it would appear these small vessels are a more effective capability at sea than the US Navy allowed for during those streetfighter debates at the turn of 21st century.

Read more:

The View from the Top

Finally echoing Galrahn is this post by eagle1 at United States Naval Institute Blog with this post. Department of Cheaper Pirate Fighting

In the Finest Traditions of the United States Navy

The news this Easter Sunday that Captain Richard Phillips has been freed by the United States Navy and three of the pirates killed and one captured were executed in the finest traditions of the American Navy. Here is my initial take. We see a small group of trained men took direct action to end this first act of taking an American ship by pirates in two hundred years. The navies of the world have deployed to the region and so far have been less than successful in preventing pirates from taking their pickings of the thousands of ships that traverse those waters. My own take is that the real benefit beyond presenting an image of universal unity is an exercise that might be described as naval butt sniffing, where the world navies have a chance to sniff out each others operational methods. This awareness is leading to what Galrahn has described this way in his post Leveraging Success Going Forward.

If the US takes a deep breath and practices both patience and statesmanship, this situation will produce a framework for cooperation and mutual trust and confidence among the nations of what Tom Barnett calls the "Functioning Core." The US should do nothing that delivers the message that there is one set of rules for us and another for the rest of the world. Moreover, we have a chance to "lead from the edge" by actually listening and adopting the ideas of other nations. This is a priceless strategic opportunity that should not be wasted.

I have linked several posts that address suggestions for tackling this problem. Even though Somalia pirates are not a direct threat to our national security, they do impact our global community and at the same time as noted above offer us opportunities to move forward.

First a look at how this problem is growing.

Somali Pirates: A look since 2005

And now for solutions and comments

The US Must Speak so the Pirates Understand

An Indian Ocean “Influence Squadron” Forms

How to Beat the Somali Pirates

Piracy: The Only Solution

To get an idea of the number of ships in theatre is this order of battle provided by Information Dissemination from April 4, 2009. 5th Fleet Focus: Order of Battle.

The cost of maintaining this international fleet is in the billions and judging the level of continued piratical success is tactically a failure.

.

Suggestions for dealing with this have ranged from convoys, small green water influence squadrons, to taking out the pirate bases. One idea floated was to station armed guards aboard ships transiting this region. This tactic was used during World War II when United States Navy Armed Guard was placed aboard merchant ships to protect against uboat and air threats.

[Steve Schippert] of threatswatch offers a similar view Somali Piracy: A Practical Solution -

Here is my opinion on this idea. If this tactic is adopted and modified to the conditions of this region, two things will be accomplished. First, and foremost any attempt to attack a ship would be met with the same kind of force that ended this latest act of piracy. Secondly, the cost of providing this protection would be lowered to levels that are sustainable to both the nations and the shipping companies. The true benefit would fall back to the common citizen who sees his tax dollars used more effectively and the cost of goods competitive.

Small teams could be inserted onto the ships as they approached the danger zone. The teams would have to be well armed with enough firepower to sink any of the small boats that are used to challenge them. In the same fashion of shotgun guards on stagecoaches in the 18th and 19th century they would become a known deterrent after the brigands become aware of the threat.

These teams would ride shotgun until the ship passes the danger zone and then are flown back or pick up a ride on a ship going the other way. The fear of arming crews would be eliminated as well as having weapons carried on board. This is no more dangerous than banks hiring armed guards to deter robbery.

This mission could be shared by the seafaring nations who could contribute their security teams under the mandate of the UN and following the time tested maritime rule that pirates be dealt with deadly force whenever encountered. The only time that conflict would occur is when the pirates attack. Small fishing boats or even pirate boats acting as fishing boats would be free from harm. The upshot of any successful attack would be that the pirates would insure themselves and their brethren a level of assured destruction in the response that world opinion would demand.

This leaves the pirates to prey on small craft which have been their bread and butter for the past two thousand years. Short of eliminating the pirate bases and entering into nation-building in a country with limited resources to sustain such an operation, we are faced with continuing to spend billions to police this vast area with limited results or find an effective way to make ships pirate proof with the add on measures described above.

The U.S. NAVY SHOWED SOME STONES!

BREAKING NEWS!

It has just been reported that Captain Richard Phillips has been freed in a daring rescue by the United States Navy.

Captain freed, pirates killed, U.S. official says

Thinking like A Fox

Steve DeAngelis of Enterra Solutions has up an insightful post that challenges us all to become fox's in our pursuit of learning to think for ourselves. Steve introduces this topic with this poem, part of which I have posted below.

Little known poet Walter D. Wintle wrote only one poem of note. The poem is best known by the title “The Man Who Thinks He Can.” It goes like this:

If you think you are beaten, you are;

If you think you dare not, you don’t.

If you’d like to win, but think you can’t,It’s almost a cinch you won’t.

If you think you’ll lose, you’re lost,For out in the world we find Success begins with a fellow’s will;

It’s all in the state of mind.

Steve continues his essay by drawing from an op-ed piece in the New York Times by Nicholas Kristof about thinking, specifically about the often errant thinking of so-called experts ["Learning How to Think," 26 March 2009]. He then turns to New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg to illustrate how politicians lead us down paths without telling us about the landmines of contradiction strewn about. "I’m Not Running for President, but ..." New York Times, 28 February 2008].

Read more:Learning to Think for Yourself

Supporting today's focus on thinking is this post from Mark at Zenpundit is this post entitled.

Excess Complexity is the Route to Extinction. It is a post filled with links and an excellent analysis of the value of "keeping it simple stupid."

Finally, Thomas Barnett weighs in on what he describes as President Obama's wasteful and foolish dream of ridding the world of nuclear weapons. The logic of Dr. Barnett's comments are deafening is one stops to apply the lessons conveyed in Steve DeAngelis's post and seek the simplicity of evidence offered by Mark.

Barnett begins:

Obama's team proposes a replacement to START that would limit both sides to 1k nuclear warheads (not weapons, warheads). We currently have about 4k and Russia has 5k. Bush-Cheney had an agreement with Moscow to go down to 1700 US and 2200 Russia by 2012.

I could live with both sides dropping down to maybe 2500 a piece, but to me, 1k is too low. I like a big, "unthinkable" lead on the rest of the world and I don't worry about having Russia along for that ride, because we cancel each other out in that regard.

But we can argue over the best long-term number. What we should not argue over is this notion of trying to get the world to zero. Since that simply will not happen for rising great powers any time soon, we need to remain many-fold larger than their current/desired arsenal levels, and we need to keep our arsenals in solid shape.

That's why Obama's rejection of the Reliable Replacement Warhead (simple updating) program is deeply flawed. Gates wants it and so does the military. Without it, our arsenal degrades and becomes less safe and less operationally sound.

Read more:Again, banning nuclear weapons is a foolish dream and a waste of Obama's limited political capital in national security affairs

Taken altogether, learning to apply critical thinking is a tool once learned, must be sharpened constantly in order to cut through the rhetoric and gibberish offered by self-serving politicians, many in the MSM and self appointed experts. I confess to being like most, getting my news and information via the MSM. Reading two newspapers a day and watching several news shows, not only consumed a large part of my day, but limited my exposure to important views that time did not permit pursuing. Today, with the Internet, it is possible to peruse dozens of sources offering a broad spectrum of ideas. Using my own mental Medici Effect of letting the convergent ideas intersect in my brain, I am able to form an opinion that I can support mentally and emotionally.

A World Turned Upside Down

From MOGADISHU (Reuters) comes this update regarding the ongoing story of a world turned upside down. The worlds strongest most technologically advanced navy stands by as Somalia pirates hold American Sea Captain Richard Phillips hostage in a stranded lifeboat. Phillips attempt to escape under the watchful eyes of the Navy was thwarted by the pirates when they opened fire and Phillips swam back to the boat. The silence is deafening as the world awaits to see what the U.S. Navy will do. This final passage of the news account reveals how far our nation has come from the days of Thomas Jefferson and his response to the Barbary pirates in the first decade of the 19th century.

From Reuters:

The hijackings brought a massive international response, with ships from the United States, Europe, China, Japan and others flocking to the region to protect the sea routes.

Maritime groups say the likeliest outcome from the U.S. hostage saga is a negotiated solution, possibly involving safe passage in exchange for the captive.

U.S. Somalia expert Ken Menkhaus said the best outcome would be for the German ship to be allowed to pick up Phillips and his captors and take them to shore, and for a ransom to be paid for the American.

"It would mean no loss of life and no risk to the lives of the other hostages. And at the end of the day an insurance company would be out $2 million -- probably just $1 million after negotiations," Menkhaus said.

Read more:

Somali pirates move to aid comrades, hostage recaptured

Just read the comments of Mr. Menkhaus to get an idea of how impotent we have become as a nation that is so risk averse that we would gladly pay a ransom to solve a problem and avoid bloodshed. We are behaving just like the Europeans did in the early 19th century when after the United States defeated the pirates in two wars, continued to pay ransoms into the 1830's.

It is even more ironic that the ship tasked standing by is named after Captain William Bainbridge, who himself became a hostage of the pirates when his ship the USS Philadelphia, ran aground.

The United States went on to fight the Barbary Wars which consisted of the First Barbary War and Second Barbary War, ending for once and for all the taking of American ships by pirates, that is until last week, when President Obama finds himself faced with the same problem that Thomas Jefferson confronted two hundred years ago.

Christopher Hitchens wrote this article found in City Journal about how Jefferson dealt with the Barbary Pirates. Thomas Jefferson and the Barbary Pirates.

In his final paragraph Hitchens quotes Kipling who consuls against any nation falling victim to paying tribute.

Kipling runs briskly through the stages of humiliation undergone by any power that falls for this appeasement, and concludes:

It is wrong to put temptation in the path of any nation,

For fear they should succumb and go astray;

So when you are requested to pay up or be molested,

You will find it better policy to say:

—“We never pay any-one Dane-geld,

No matter how trifling the cost;

For the end of that game is oppression and shame,

And the nation that plays it is lost!”

It may be fortunate that the United States had to pass this test, and imbibe this lesson, so early in its life as a nation.

One would hope that our nation does not forget the lesson learned early on our history, because if so if portends we have become the colossal elephant, who can not scratch the flea.

Piracy: Dateline Somalia

The hijacking of the United State flagged vessel Maersk Alabama and the retaking of the ship by the crew is the gist of the lore of the sea. It is none too ironic that a ship named for a state who's motto is We Dare Defend Our Rights would not let a few pirates hold them for long. The blogs have been covering this breaking story better than the MSM and with faster spins and analysis. For a rundown of the latest I am linking a few sites that offer the best analysis to date.

Leading off are these two posts from the United States Naval Institute Blog and posted by Galrahn and his colleague Eagle1.

I understand that piracy is not a serious strategic threat to the United States. I also observe the tactics of Somali pirates and observe a 21st century commerce raiding model that should have naval leaders globally very concerned. Something does not have to be a strategic threat to represent a very serious issue the Navy needs to be seriously engaged in.
Just in case someone might be wondering to what degree piracy should be a priority for the United States, and for what purpose we might have a Navy at all, a brief review of the United States Constitution may apply.

Read more:

To Provide and Maintain a Navy…

And Eagle1 write this post which he cross-posted at his site and details a way to beat the pirates without bringing the Marines to kick in the door of Somalia in a massive forced entry.

It’s been noted here (see here) and other places that the Somalia pirates have shifted some of their operations to a sea lane about 400 - 500 nautical miles off the east coast of Somalia. They are able to find ships in that area because despite the vast size of the Indian Ocean, most ships follow time tested routes that save time and fuel and carry them to ports. These routes are logical and well known.Take a look at the nearby maps. At the top is an older map (Map 1) showing the dhow routes that have been sailed since ancient times. There’s a pattern to the flow of dhows. ***

Eagle1 concludes.

Now, I know very well that what I said before about time and money are negative motivators for merchant ships to wait for convoys to be formed. And, after all, the odds of being nabbed by pirates are pretty slim. However, there are some risk adverse ship owners who will accept the convoys, especially if their insurance carrier will lower premiums for convoy participants.
I said it before and I’ll say it again - given a chance - convoys work.
And, if you aren’t going to invade Somalia to take out pirate havens, you don’t really have a lot of other options.

Read more:

How to Beat the Somali Pirates

The master and commander of Information Dissemination the intrepid Galrahn writes this analysis of the conditions, tactics and strategy of combating piracy off Somalia.

Understanding Somali Maritime Conditions

Somali pirates are criminals, not victims. There is a tendency in western society to suggest Somali pirates are victims of conditions of Somalia. Lets be clear, Somali pirates contribute to the conditions in Somalia as much as anyone. Somalia is starving, the maritime region between Somalia and Yemen is currently where the largest maritime migration of smuggled people occurs in the world as people flee conditions in Somalia. The United Nations has a refugee program along the southern coast of Yemen that deals with around 20,000 Somali migrants annually. Thousands more are thought to die annually in that maritime journey, and the smugglers who are engaged in the human trafficking of that area are from the same communities as the pirates.

Tactical Issues

The news folks are talking a lot about motherships, but there is context. Somali fisherman usually tow 3-4 skiffs behind a larger fishing vessel well out to sea, then the fisherman will use the skiffs to fish larger areas of the sea in coordination with the mothership for large catches. The fishing off Somalia helps feeds large numbers of people in the Somalia coastal communities, and for that reason the WFP is delivering food in more urban areas and into land, not along the coastal communities that are able to leverage the Indian Ocean for food.

Policy, Strategy,Technology, and Creativity

There have been zero hostage rescue operations conducted against a ship being held for ransom by pirates. Ransoms to pirates in just the last year have topped $150 million. Counting ransoms, additional operations costs, maritime insurance premiums, labor union requirements for hazard pay in the region, and costs for additional security measures the total cost to the maritime industry in the region over the last year is estimated to be between $500 million $750 million. The total cost of US Navy operations in the region over the same period could be estimated to be around $250 million for piracy alone, so when one adds the costs of naval vessels from China, India, Russia, UK, France, Greece, Turkey, Portugal, Denmark, Netherlands, Sweden, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Spain, and Saudi Arabia (plus whoever I forgot) the costs of maritime security are clearly very high, probably higher than the costs of piracy itself.

Read more:

Somalia Piracy - A Backgrounder

The cost of keeping the ships of a dozen nations patrolling an area the size of the State of Texas in an effort to stop pirates that seem to be as allusive as if they were hiding deep in a tropical jungle. The best efforts have only resulted in two uninvolved fishing boats being sunk and a few pirates captured and released or handed over to Kenya for trial at some later date. After reading the above posts I find Galrahn's comments about the U.S. Navy and I would add all the navies of the world lacking in tactical surface situations since 1945.

Galrahn's comments are direct and honest.

I think the inability of the US Navy to do anything about the small stuff like piracy is embarrassing. I think the unwillingness to do it is troubling. Finally, I think the reasons are fairly easy to explain. The number of days the Surface Warfare Community of the United States Navy has actually been engaged in combat since 1945 is less than the number of leap years since 1945. I think it is both telling and incredible that ZERO surface warfare officers have published under a real name an alternative to the much maligned 313-ship fleet produced in 2005. This suggests to me that the surface warfare community, as a whole, has been silenced into becoming an echo chamber absent creativity or constructive friction. It is clear to me that today's US Navy leadership promotes and fosters a culture that is prohibitive to new and alternative strategic ideas.

That is probably a really bad thing for one of the two elements of the entire joint military force of the United States defense establishment that hasn't faced a realistic strategic challenge since 1945. One would think under those conditions, the SWO community would be the most conscience towards insuring they are promoting creative thinking and alternative viewpoints.

In defense, the U.S. Navy did have similar experience in operation Market Time during the Vietnam War. In that war we engaged with brown and green water patrol vessels to interdict arms shipments and support coastal operations with small patrol vessels capable of speed and firepower. But most of those who cut their teeth on this kind of service have long passed into the ranks of the also served or as for one chairs the Senate Foreign Relations Commitee. Now This Could Be a Fascinating Conversation, also courtesy of Galrahn.

UPDATE!

Expanding on issues and ideas raised in earlier posts and by your host above, Galrahn weighs in with this update.

.

The current approach taken by the worlds Navy's, due primarily to a highly restrictive Rules of Engagement driven by a law enforcement political policy, has been to use limited available naval resources to consolidate the area to protect as a safe shipping lane and utilize convoy systems when available. This is an effective approach with limited resources, but the problem with this approach is that it doesn't change the security conditions, so the strategy does not have a real goal or achievement to work towards. Understanding the ultimate solution is solved on land, it is also important for the Navy to recognize that long term maritime security means there is work that needs to also be done at sea. The Navy needs to be prepared to discuss options.

Read More:

Observing the Obama Administration Somali Piracy Policy

The Armchair Admiral and the Zen

The observations of galhran of Information Dissemination have graced this blog before and today is no exception. Joining in, is Mark of Zenpundit who offers a counter-point to Galrahn's post on Mexico.

First, in a followup to a post I wrote last week Naval Hearings, The Ships, The Crews and The Mission in The 21st Century comes this in depth review of the hearings written in a balanced tone that finds more in common among those testifying than previously mentioned.

Both Dr. Barnett and Dr. Thompson agreed on two interesting points. First, if we build an interoperable national fleet in the spirit of the Navy's maritime strategy we will get good results. Second, the fleet is not likely to get larger without smaller, cheaper warships. I enjoyed the way Dr. Barnett puts it in his written testimony:

Read more:

Notes From Last Thursday's House Subcommittee Hearing

And then in his capacity as a guest blogger at for the United States Naval Institute Blog,

Galrahn adds his thoughts to the conversation began by Mark of Zenpundit about whether Mexico is a failed state or as Galrahn suggests a weak state.

Quoting DNI, Admiral Dennis Blair.

"Mexico is in no danger of becoming a failed state. [Let me] repeat that. Mexico is in no danger of becoming a failed state. The violence we see now is the result of Mexico taking action against the drug cartels."

The important observation by Galrahn addresses our COIN strategy and raises an interesting point with this statement.

My point would be this: there is no value in the cartels overthrowing the Mexican government because its existence helps them more than its absence helps them.

But this is my larger point. There are currently zero, none, nada 4GW/COIN/Whatever military solutions for failed states; our emerging 4GW/COIN/Whatever doctrines, strategies, and theories only apply for weak states that have legitimate governments that can be supported. Failed states are problems that can be handled, even in an ugly way, by conventional military forces. The danger to US strategic interests is not failed states, as is often claimed, rather the real danger to US strategic interests always comes from weak states.

Read More:

Failed States Are Worse Than Weak States

I agree with his final assessment that if the cartel's take out the legitimate government our options become certain. Currently, we have few options other than supporting the current Mexican government in their efforts to overcome the cartel's grip. The important issue is that another voice is added to the conversation, which is what Mark was attempting to do, by raising the question in the first place. It is better for us to prepare for every contingency by launching discussions that air the views of all who look south with concern for our neighbor. Mark, has responded with Galrahn's post this way.

I found Galrahn’s argument to be very intriguing. There’s the issue of Mexico specifically in his post and then Weak States being worse than Failed States as a general rule. First, Mexico:

The thought experiment I penned previously aside, Mexico is not yet a Failed State and I hope it does not become one - though I would not wager a mortgage payment on it staying away from catastrophic failure. Mexico is definitely, in my view, already a Weak State suddenly resisting the process of being “hollowed out”, slowly, by vicious drug cartels. I wish President Calderon well in his efforts to crush the narco networks, but just as America cannot avoid admitting that our drug laws are impacting Mexico severely, let’s not let the fact that Mexico’s ruling oligarchy has also brought this disaster on themselves with their self-aggrandizingly corrupt political economy escape comment.

Mark concludes by asking for input.

That brings us to the general question of, is a Failed State better or worse than a Weak State whose tattered shreds of international legitimacy prevent robust foreign intervention? I am going to “punt” by inclining toward judging on a case-by-case basis. “Failed State Botswana” is not likely to impact the world very much nor is “Functional State Congo” going to look very good next to anything except Congo as the Failed State that it is. Now “Failed State China” or “Failed State Russia”, that has consequences that are the stuff of nightmares.
What do you say? Which is worse: Weak State or Failed State?

Read more Is A Weak or “Hollow” State Worse than a Failed State?

Both men are carrying the ball forward and presenting forums to discuss the issues before they become a full blown crisis that catch America unprepared. One of the main examples carried forth by Thomas Barnett in Great Powers is for people to get involved and in effect create their own public policy. For Americans this means discussion between all those interested in their nation and a free society I invite everyone who reads this to take the time to consider this issue, read, join the discussion it's free and will be welcomed by all.