One of the most interesting things we do in Wikistrat is Scenario Planning. Through the use of live collaborative simulations, our analysts and subscribers alike engage in the mapping of scenarios, country interests and policy options on a given issue. We ran such drills on Egypt (The Egypt War Room) and on the "Sudden death of Kim Jong Il".
Here is Dr. Barnett's introduction.Our current Simulation is on Turkey, and deals with its political and economic rise in the Middle East, its implications and potential pathways. So far several interesting scenarios were mapped, as well as interests and policy objectives for major regional and global powers affected by Turkey's Rise.
Turkey's rise is real and based on both its economic trajectory (stunning quadrupling of per capita GDP across last decade) and its economic vulnerabilities (resource-dependent, deeply embedded in global production chains), meaning Ankara networks aggressively throughout the surrounding regions because it has to.
In many ways, far more than responsibility-averse China and alliance-averse India, Turkey is the true US-like (as in, turn of 20th century) rising power of this globalization era, meaning the natural bridge-builder and peace-maker that sticks its nose nearly everywhere - often to welcoming effect. In many ways, Turkey outperforms the foreign policies of both the EU and the US in the Middle East and Central Asia, while - in effect - extending their interests.
Read more:Despite this truth, both Europe and the US fret that Turkey's more independently-minded foreign policy of the past years means it is "turning away from the West." It's not. If anything, Turkey is simply turning toward everybody else on the West's behalf. Turkey's sudden emergence as diplomatic whirlwind under Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu is on par with China's sudden reappearance on the global stage with Deng Xiaoping in the late 1970s/early 1980s.
Turkey: The Re-Rise of the Ottoman Empire
In a shameless plug, I am proud to be taking part in this simulation and would urge anyone interested in staying on the cutting edge of globalization, security and current events to become a subscriber.