Thursday, January 31, 2008
The Awakening of A New Generation
Yesterday, I even heard, conservative talk show personality Sean Hannity admit that it was time for the Republicans to change, or become irrelvant. He took a lot of flak for admitting what I see is as the truth.
This thread of thought is repeated in a post by historian Victor Davis Hanson.
More "The Moral Economy"
Case in point is a series posts and articles that have appeared the past few days. I also sense it in conversations I have had with many of the young people who make up the generation born after 1981.
First off is a post by Steve DeAngelis on the The Rise of the Social Entrepreneur He writes that:
Business means jobs and jobs mean hope for a better future. At a time when the news is full of negative stories about the economy, conflicts, and crime, reading a column about hope in the future and about those determined to make the world a better place is refreshing.
The next day in a related post about the World Economic Forum in Davos. Steve refers back to his previous post and goes on to relate how some of the older generation seems to be getting it too. Profit-backed Social Philosophy
The World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, draws an interesting and diverse crowd. Yesterday I wrote about the young, social entrepreneurs found there by New York Times' columnist Nicholas Kristof [The Rise of the Social Entrepreneur]. Most of those young people are relatively unknown. The Forum also attracts big names, however, like Bill Gates, the founder of Microsoft. John Markoff reports that Gates lectured a packed house on his social philosophy ["Bill Gates: Social Philosopher," New York Times/International Herald Tribune Davos Diary, 24 January 2008].
The gist of the posts are that social outreach is begining to surface as a driving force among people who have a concern for their fellow man. Altrusim aside, this means security for everyone.
To further this arguement are a couple of posts today by Tom Barnett about the next generation being felt in the Islamic World.The young and the restless and the right kind of caliphate .
The second post links an article in Business Week by Micheele Conlin about the issues that the 43 million strong generation of "echo Boomers" find important.The Millennials getting political
This brings me to my own sense of this generation. I have written before about examples of people who seem to get it, A Resilient Nation . I noted that one of the people I briefly profiled spent valuable time raising money for cancer and AIDS research, as she put herself through college. In conversations with her, and several other people of this generation including my own teenage son, you get a sense of what matters. They are realistic about the future. Aprehensive for sure, but realistic that the tab for over consumption is due. These young people know they will have to clean up the mess left by our departing generations. It is interesting that they all see themselves as Americans first, and not intending to abandon the ship to seek a better life in the developing world as some have, Jim Rogers investment guru, moving to Singapore as a case in point. In fact a few, including the young women working her way through college are intrigued with working for companies like Enterra Solutions, http://www.enterrasolutions.com/ or entering the diplomatic service.
Does this mean that this generation is fully prepared to take the reins and steer the ship of state. Counter points can be made when one considers that one third of all seniors in high school in 2007, failed to graduate. The ones who did and go on to contribute, seem to have an understanding of the world. Others are happy to be content to let society provide. But note the third most important issue on the list of political concerns is education.
1.Health, 2. economy, 3. education.
Most understand that in order to survive and thrive you need security. For a generation raised to have their external security guarenteed by the world's strongest military, physical security now means good health. Secondly, they realize that a good economy requires a good education. This is a Fire bell in the night to quote Thomas Jefferson, for those who desire to lead, to understand that change is the wind.
Sunday, January 27, 2008
Democracy in retreat?
The previous post about Waving Goodbye to Hegemony called into question the future role that the United States will play in world affairs. Germain to that argument is the role that democracy will play in the future.
An old professor I once had, told his world history classes that it all boils down to "it's the money stupid." Kinda sounds like a political slogan.... But...is that always the case?
A recent article in the Financial Times by Niall Ferguson entitled, Feature: Slow but sure looks at the current state of democracy in the world.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/56514caa-cbb2-11dc-97ff-000077b07658.html
He asks:
Has the democratic wave broken? Is the tide of political freedom now ebbing after the spectacular flow that began in 1989? Recent events on nearly every continent certainly give real cause for concern to those who dream of a world governed by the ballot box rather than the bullet. But they may also provide an overdue opportunity to think more realistically about the way the process of democratisation works.
The article goes on to highlight the countries that have retreated from democracy and those who have found economic success, sans a democratic system.
However, recent economic developments have weakened such arguments. The world economy as a whole has never enjoyed a boom like that of 2001-07. Yet democracy has gained little from all this prosperity. Moreover, the most rapidly growing economies in the world since 2000 have not been the democraciesFerguson offers a different view to explain the success of democratic systems by examining England's democratic heritage.
The England of the 1860s was, in short, hardly a model democracy, quite apart from its still-restricted franchise. Was there corruption? By today's standards, certainly. Were the rich over-represented? Without a doubt. Yet three things are striking about the system Trollope so vividly describes. First, the political elite were agreed in condemning any kind of political violence - even the threat of it - out of hand. Secondly, those in government did not hesitate to leave office, and all its perquisites, if they felt their parliamentary position to be untenable. Thirdly, the overwhelming majority of MPs on both sides accepted the sanctity of the constitution and supremacy of the law.Ferguson offers only one panacea for ensuring democracy's will again flourish. That being the respect for the rule of law.
The key to spreading democracy is clearly not just to overthrow undemocratic regimes and hold elections. Nor is it simply a matter of waiting for a country to achieving the right level of income or rate of growth. The key, as Stanford political scientist Barry Weingast has long argued, is to come up with rules that are ''self-enforcing'', so that the more they are applied, the more respected they become, until at last they become inviolable.Our own system on some days calls into question whether those with wealth and power are willing to leave the stage gracefully. As the election approaches all concerned Americans should pause and consider the future they want for their children.
Thursday, January 24, 2008
Resource consumption and hegemony, roadblocks to the future?
I was perusing allroadsleadtochina.com and two posts caught my eye. The first was discussing China's recent drought and how it is effecting their economy and future.
http://www.allroadsleadtochina.com/index.php/2008/01/18/why-chinas-recent-drought-matters-to-you/
A few days later another post appeared that told of the growing coal shortage that was causing power shortfalls.
http://www.allroadsleadtochina.com/index.php/2008/01/24/people-may-think-i-am-overreacting/
The second post has a link to an article by Martin Wolf in Financial Times, examining how China is changing the world.
"The world is changing China. But China is also changing the world. It is the world’s fastest growing country and the biggest capital exporter; it possesses the largest foreign currency reserves and is already the world’s third-largest trading entity; it is the largest consumer of metals and the biggest emitter of carbon dioxide; and, quite soon, it will also be the world’s largest consumer of primary energy."
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/442ec948-c7c1-11dc-a0b4-0000779fd2ac,s01=1.html?nclick_check=1
These articles come as a harbinger of the difficulties that China and unmentioned India, share as they try and overcome the anchor that massive populations have on their future growth.
I had no sooner finished reviewing these posts and decided to publish a link to them, when several of my fellow bloggers posted a link to an article in the New York Times by Pagrag Khanna entitled, “Waving Goodbye to Hegemony” .
He teases the reader by imagining the United States world position in 2016.
"It is 2016, and the Hillary Clinton or John McCain or Barack Obama administration is nearing the end of its second term. America has pulled out of Iraq but has about 20,000 troops in the independent state of Kurdistan, as well as warships anchored at Bahrain and an Air Force presence in Qatar. Afghanistan is stable; Iran is nuclear. China has absorbed Taiwan and is steadily increasing its naval presence around the Pacific Rim and, from the Pakistani port of Gwadar, on the Arabian Sea. The European Union has expanded to well over 30 members and has secure oil and gas flows from North Africa, Russia and the Caspian Sea, as well as substantial nuclear energy. America’s standing in the world remains in steady decline."
Like many who have commented on this article. I have my reservations about it's message.
Mark at http://zenpundit.com/ says:
"My reaction to Khanna’s essay, distilled from his upcoming book The Second World: Empires and Influence in the New Global Order, are mixed. Clearly, great effort and thought that has been put into this project by the well-read Mr. Khanna and his Thomas Friedmanesque globetrotting reportage is nothing but impressive. Clearly, Parag Khanna “gets” that globalization is a dynamic and complex system with interdependent “frenemies”; which I infer that he splices liberally with geopolitics and the hard cultural conflict of Sam Huntington. A synthesis of civilizational conflict and convergence."
Khanna's article is a worthwhile read that adds to the dialog on the United States role in the 21st Century. I found that after blaming Bush, and throwing the United States on the ash-heap of fallen empires, he offers up five solutions for regaining our position as the moral beacon for the rest of the world.
"Taken together, all these moves could renew American competitiveness in the geopolitical marketplace — and maybe even prove our exceptionalism. We need pragmatic incremental steps like the above to deliver tangible gains to people beyond our shores, repair our reputation, maintain harmony among the Big Three, keep the second world stable and neutral and protect our common planet. Let’s hope whoever is sworn in as the next American president understands this."
The great strength overlooked in Khanna's piece is the resilience of the United States to change and adopt. I have written several times about my confidence in our greatest asset, our people who have come here, assimilated and given the ability to pursue their ideas, have overcome many of the scourges that have plagued mankind. To offer just an example of this innovative spirit I turn to a post by Steve DeAngelis where he writes about, Technology based reductions in energy consumption.
http://enterpriseresilienceblog.typepad.com/enterprise_resilience_man/2008/01/technology-base.html
The post tells of Thomas Edison an American, giving the world the electric light, and about new innovations that will not only provide light, but cut consumption of the energy used to produce light.
"Technology is a wonderful thing, but as my recent post about the Japanese trying to develop robots to replace an aging workforce highlighted, you can't easily take humans out of the equation [Demographics and Robots]. Politicians in the U.S., like those in Japan in counting on technology to solve problems, rather than risking the ire of voters by asking them to change their lifestyles. The case in point is energy consumption. Stephen Mufson, writing in the Washington Post, writes about how the Energy Bill passed by Congress and signed by the President in December will change the products consumers buy in the future ["Power Switch," 20 January 2008]."
I enclosed Steve's post to offer an example of how our innovative nature can offer solutions that will continue to benefit mankind while preserving the resources to maintain that future. The problems faced by all countries will soon level the playing field. China, has a ticking demographic time bomb that has exploded periodically in the past five thousand years and reset their clock back to the starting gate. The Russian Bear has always sought it's own den and resisted becoming someones pet, IE, the EU. The EU faces the challenges of dormant nationalism that trumps Germans, Italians and Frenchman abandoning their heritage to see themselves identified as Europeans. The United States must face the reality that continued massive consumption without investment, is like eating our seed corn. The role of the Americas, led by the U.S, Canada, Mexico, Brazil and their brethren nations are removed from the linked continents of Europe and Asia and offer a unique platform to lead by example, influence and innovation.
Even I, a right of center boomer, long for a change in direction. Every horse, no matter how good burns out and you need to switch horses in order to keep going, even if it means changing horses mid-stream. How I differ from Mr. Khanna's view is in the confidence I have in the resilience of the American people to challenge the future. Every single person in the America's from Native Americans to the latest birth today, carry the genes of someone who was looking over the horizon for a better future. That fact is our greatest resource.
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Focus on Michael Yon
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/21/business/21iraqblogger.html?_r=1&oref=slog&pagewanted=allMichael truly sees the war through the soldiers eyes. He recently spent time with our allies, the 4 Rifles battalion, of the British Army. His record of their bravery and skill is well worth reading.
http://www.michaelyon-online.com/wp/men-of-valor-part-iv.htm
There are five parts, number four above is a taste of their valor.
Part VI was just posted and tells the true story of the British repositioning at Basra. The anecdotal story of the current commander of the 4 Rifles and his relationship with Iraq is very rewarding.
http://www.michaelyon-online.com/wp/men-of-valor-part-vi-of-viii.htm
Turning to Afghanistan our allies have been taking some hits for tactics and not stepping up the the plate with defense spending. Their bravery can be seen in the links posted below.
The Dutch:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1SDvPVxhic&eurl=http://kingsofwar.wordpress.com/2008/01/17/nato-in-afghanistan/
The Canadians:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qaC-w2dIxZc&eurl=http://kingsofwar.wordpress.com/2008/01/17/nato-in-afghanistan/
The Brits:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_FcXWZ0XVuw&eurl=http://kingsofwar.wordpress.com/2008/01/17/nato-in-afghanistan/
The Danes:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sd0osZoVjhU
Our Guys:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f2ICLx1GYhc&feature=related
Monday, January 21, 2008
Sightings around the web
Enterprise Resilience Management leads off with a post about connectivity. As a historian, I look back across the ages and see our ancestors spent the past 60,000 years or so expanding to all points across the globe. The tenth century saw Lief Erickson take the first steps to modern connectivity when he sailed across the Atlantic and made contact with people who had crossed the ice-shelf to inhabit what we now call the Western Hemisphere. Humans, for better or worse have continued to connect with each other ever since. Steve DeAngelis's post examines Networked Community Solutions, where relationships trump rank, and connectivity leads to solutions.
http://enterpriseresilienceblog.typepad.com/enterprise_resilience_man/2008/01/networked-commu.html
Mark over at Zenpundit.com, has several enlightening posts this past week. Two caught my eye, the first links to posts by Tom Barnett and John Robb commenting on an article by James Fallows in Atlantic Monthly that addresses China's cash surplus. Take the time to read both the post and the article by Fallows. A timely read considering the current financial crisis looming over the next horizon.
http://zenpundit.com/?p=2570#respond
Next is a visual journey into physics, that puts our existence into it's proper prospective.
Sit back and give your nine minutes of fantastic brain candy.
http://zenpundit.com/?p=2568#comments
Finally, Tom Barnett continues to read books at warp-speed in preparation for his next writing effort. He just posted the latest readings with short synopsis on each.
http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/2008/01/another_book_post.html
http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/2008/01/another_another_book_post.html
http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/2008/01/recent_books.html
http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/2008/01/more_books_1.html
http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/2008/01/another_books_post.html
I know this is an extensive list, and Tom is proving to be the all-time reading king. By reading the short descriptions, one can pick out books that may spark an interest. Enjoy!
Wow! can't even keep up with Tom. Before this post was two days old, he read seven more books, linked below.
http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/2008/01/four_to_go.html
http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/2008/01/two_more_books.html
http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/2008/01/last_new_book_for_now.html
Friday, January 11, 2008
REFLECTION ON A NOBLE SOUL
Last January 2007, as the first units were being deployed to Iraq in a campaign labeled The Surge, the U.S. Military was losing men and women to IED's and ambushes almost everyday. One of those days, January 15, saw four men of the 2/7th Cavalry and their interrupter, killed by a massive roadside bomb. The difference this incident had from other's that month, and the times before and since, can be found in a letter left by one of those men, Lt. Mark Daily of Irvine, California. To borrow a phrase from Christhopher Hitchens who writes below, "be prepared to shed a few tears."
I can not begin to tell the story of this young man as eloquently as he describes his own reason for volunteering for Iraq, or as well as what has since been written about his life and family. What I will do is offer a guide to reading about the circumstances of this young mans death and the aftermath of losing him. Quite by chance Michael Yon a correspondent, was embedded with the 2/7 on that day and wrote a dispatch describing what happened.
A few days later an article appeared in the local paper in Lt. Daily's hometown, announcing his loss.
That article told of Lt. Daily leaving a letter to his friends on his Myspace page explaining why he joined the Army after completing College
The story does not end here. Several talk radio personalities such as Hugh Hewitt and Michelle Malkin, spoke of, and posted links to Lt. Daily's letter. His letter and it's message of the importance of engagement with the world to make it a better place, spread across the radio waves and the blogosphere, where Tom Barnett commented and linked the story. It even reached the halls of Congress, where it was read into the congressional record.
As fate would dictate, I became intimate with this story when I learned my goddaughter was a close friend of both Mark, and his widow Janet. I was privileged to attend his services and saw my fellow citizens 1600 strong, honor this young man with the most moving service I have ever witnessed.
The next month, the Los Angeles Times in an article entitled "A higher calling than duty" profiling the life of Lt. Daily and what kind of person he was, and those he left behind.
Summer came and went, and in the fall this article appeared in Vanity Fair, written by Christopher Hitchens. It seems that Mark Daily was influenced by some of Mr. Hitchens articles to enlist. Hitchens wrote a fitting and final tribute to Mark Daily.
Mark Daily is only one of the thousands, who have paid with their lives during this long war. The measure of his life is that he understood what he wanted to do with his life. During his funeral, the message that kept being repeated by his family and friends, was that Mark's last message said that, "He was having the time of his life." Some might read this and not understand, how can you be in a war and have the time of your life. You could say the same thing about anyone who challenges life and in doing so, risks all. That is the element of human spirit that keeps our species moving forward.
There is a final postscript to this story. Last summer I had lunch with my goddaughter and she brought Janet, Mark's young widow, along. Later, our conversation turned to Janet and I asked her how she was doing. She told me that she was returning to school to get an MBA. I thought to myself, good for her. In the next sentence, she announced that her goal was to go into the foreign service and use the MBA to help developing countries improve their economies. She told me that her own experience of being the daughter of immigrants, and Mark’s legacy was the driving force behind her goal.
I share this story with you as another example of the resilient people who grow out the the fertile soil of a free society. They are the best example of people looking ahead to continuing to build a better future for all. Regardless of your opinion of the war, the example of Mark Daily's dream of a better world can serve as a guidepost of our own responsibility to engage with our fellow beings.
As we approach the anniversary of Mark Daily's death I offer this as a small testament to his soul.
Saturday, January 5, 2008
Don't miss reading this post!
Mark expands on the topic to offer two possible reasons for the decline in major creativity. In a nutshell, the first being, "the emphasis on vertical thinking by acknowledged experts." The second," that disciplinary fields... generate their own cultures.....where it is harder to rock the boat."http://zenpundit.com/?p=2551#comments
The answer to the decline in creativity is masterfully outlined by Mark. He relies on two of my favorite buzz words, horizontal thinking and metacognitively, using them to anchor his argument that; "Analytical-reductionism and Synthesis-consilience have to be regarded by serious thinkers as tools of equal value."
In all earnest I urge everyone to read these two fine posts by Steve and Mark. Take the time to read the links Mark provides to support his essay, they are invaluable in understanding this important topic.
Wednesday, January 2, 2008
Danger! Recession Ahead?
The opening days of 2008 bring news of economic records broken for the first time. Oil topped $100 dollars a barrel and gold went to $860 before settling back to $856 at the close of business Jan 2, 2008.
http://www.wtrg.com/daily/crudeoilprice.html
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
Is the United States at the brink of a steep plunge, or are we already halfway down and close to an upturn? This news for most people is like facing the prospect of sliding down a mile long razor into a pool of alcohol. In reality, Americans will have to cut back, and will probably save more. Like all things in life the lessons learned from pitfalls and losses will help inspire the human spirit to find a way out of this trouble spot.
Financial Times online edition, has a thoughtful article on whether the United States and due to our economic clout, most of the world are on the brink, or will skirt along the edge, slowly avoiding the plunge.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8fc8a006-b969-11dc-bb66-0000779fd2ac.htmlBooks, books, and more books
With a double hat tip to these fine gentlemen, I have listed links to their posts in order to spread the word and encourage all to make the time and read a few of these important books as a way to enlighten and stimulate your mind.
http://zenpundit.com/?p=2539#comments
http://potbangers.blogspot.com/2007/12/thomas-pm-barnett-reading-list.html#links
http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/2008/01/two_new_book_lists_and_faqs.html
The list is ambitious undertaking for anyone interested in understanding the world we live in. In that vein, I would recommend picking out books that interest you or challenge your views in order to expand your horizons.
As a person who is immersed in the study of history, I have found that the broader my reading the more that I can understand how history impacts the future. To borrow a phrase written by Steve DeAngelis, that it is more important to be; "Looking toward the future, than watching the wake," history most useful tool is to help remember where the shoals lie and how to identify them.
http://enterpriseresilienceblog.typepad.com/enterprise_resilience_man/2007/12/dont-give-up-on.html
The above referenced booklists serve as guideposts that can only enhance your knowledge of the world.

