Tom Barnett and Wikistrat are planning their,"version of a war room on Egypt" as this ancient civilization threatens to spin hopelessly out of control. In a quote from CNN.com Barnett lays out this scenario.
Thomas P. Barnett of forecasting group Wikistrat put it more colorfully: "Let me give you the four scariest words I can't pronounce in Arabic: وبعد مصر حسنى مبارك "Egypt after Hosni Mubarak" ...
In any event, says Barnett -- formerly a professor at the U.S. Navy War College -- events in Egypt and Tunisia show that the "Islamist narrative" to explain the woes of the Arab world is being challenged by a maturing and well-educated youth movement whose expectations of a better life have been dashed by economic stagnation and a stifling political atmosphere . . .
Barnett, chief analyst at Wikistrat, says Mubarak's best -- and perhaps only -- option may now be to announce an "exit date" to take the sting out of the protests, organize an orderly transition to fresh elections and hand authority to a caretaker Cabinet that could focus on growing the economy . . .
Tune in at:
Wikistrat: Excercise on Egyptian's "Angry Friday" VERTICAL SHOCK
In a related post, "CoreGap Weekly Bulletin" #11.04 has just been released and is available for down loading. This edition covers.
This week our bulletin covers, among many:
1.Terra Incognita - Two strategic narratives duke it out in the Pentagon
2.Smooth summit, as Obama doesn’t spoil Hu’s legacy photo-op
3.Iran ends lavish energy and food subsidies in historic reform gamble
4. Duvalier’s return to Haiti complicates election stalemate
5.Turkey’s busy foreign policy signals regional leadership ambitionIt is still time to sign up for the basic subscription which I have found most insightful and loaded with great background material.
CoreGap Bulletin #11.04
Wikistrat: Virtual Strategic War-Room
Voting tally from the War Room
This post comes by way of CDR Salamander, naval centric blogger who offers this realistic but sad take on where Egypt is heading. Take to time to read the link the Cdr has to Michael J Totten and how he called this half a decade ago.
CDR SALAMANDER: Sandy Pessimism