Plotting a Course Correction into Well Know Waters

walrus.wr.usgs.gov

 

Dr. Thomas PM Barnett 

www.eaq.sk

 

Part of what makes a person a visionary strategist, or a master navigator, is being able to recognize changes in the wind, and recommend course changes to those tasked with commanding, be it a ship or a nation. This past week Thomas PM Barnett, who by his own admission, has for a long  time suggested that the United States abandon the old world alliances, and cast her lot with the new kids on the great power block, China and India. However, as Barnett explains in an article penned for World Politics Review, he now recommends staying the course with our European allies by renewing our bonds of shared values, and past experiences, as the United States sets her strategic course over the next twenty years. Barnett writes in part.

Readers familiar with my old column here will remember how I’ve taken to describing that 2030 future as the C-I-A world, as in, one run by China, India and America. But recently, thanks to a series of long-range simulations run by Wikistrat, where I serve as chief analyst, I’ve found myself thinking that renewing the trans-Atlantic bond with Europe may be the best way to assure the right kind of U.S. global leadership as we move toward that 2030 horizon.

Today’s globalization is suffering a populist blowback on a nearly global scale. Indeed, the only places not suffering such blowback are Latin America, Africa and Southeast Asia, frontiers where globalization’s widespread wealth creation is still resulting in very positive outcomes. Just about everywhere else, whether in the old West, the rising East or the Arab world, we’re seeing a build-up of social anger at globalization’s inequities and excesses that is stunning in its scope and persistence. In short, the world seems destined to either re-balkanize itself over these tensions or enter into a lengthy progressive era that corrects these imbalances and cleans up these corrupting trends...
 

Barnett goes on to make this conclusion, and offers this recommendation why the United States should to set her strategic sights along side the EU and NATO, to navigate what appears to be troubling waters over the next two decades.

When you look at America’s competition with India and China in this light, you start to realize that neither of those two Asian giants really has anything to teach this country. Instead, both are doomed to cover a lot of difficult ground that our system has already mastered. They need to “play up” to America’s developmental level, not the other way around.

So, if the U.S. is really looking for a strategic partner for further co-evolution amid a second Progressive Era, our natural choice is Europe. We have the same problems -- and the same strengths. We share common languages and heritages. We know how to screw up globalization (World War I), and how to rebuild it even better (the U.S.-engineered international liberal trade order following World War II). 

And just as importantly, we know how to handle bullies given over to feverish bouts of nationalism.
 

Read the whole article: Trans-Atlantic Ties Still Key to Renewing U.S. Global Leadership

Azores

PLA-Navy

Renewing the ties might have an even more pressing motivation as this post up this week at Center for International Maritime Security. Where a post by Felix Seidler, a fellow at the Institute for Security Policy at the University of Kiel, Germany, writes about a possible move by the PLA-Navy into the Atlantic.

On his way back from a trip to South America in the summer of 2012 China’s Premier Wen Jiabao made the strangest possible stopover. He landed on an American-Portuguese air base on the Azores. The Lajes Field Air Force Base is one of many on the Pentagon’s list to be reduced or scrapped.

Seidler then went on to describe his own less view of this possible development.

However, terror-filled visions of Chinese aerial patrols over the Atlantic are out of place. How would the aircraft, including personnel and equipment, get there? And what types of aircraft could perform such feats? China’s military is not blessed with too many long-range bombers or maritime patrol aircraft. Even if they had such capabilities, why should China try to send men and material, strongly needed in the Indo-Pacific, to the other end of the world? From these current practical limitations it would be easy, but wrong, to stop the discussion about China’s role and potential operations in the Atlantic.

This new development in the territory of a NATO country must be seen in the context of China’s efforts in another NATO member, Iceland. China has heavily invested in the country’s ports and infrastructure because Beijing in the long-term expects an ice-free Arctic to open new shipping routes. Meanwhile in Greenland, whose foreign policy is administered by NATO member Denmark, vast quantities of important resources have also caught China’s eye and spurred development plans.

China is attempting to protect and project its strategic interests in the Atlantic and is doing so within NATO countries. This broader trend should not be dismissed without broader analysis. Such moves – note the plural – are something entirely new.

Seidler cautions that before everyone in the West declares a state of emergency that everyone calm down.

For the foreseeable future, what China does in the Atlantic will have zero operational military relevance. The strategic and political implications are what matters. In London, with its own not-inconsiderable South Atlantic interests, and in Paris, these geopolitical developments will be watched closely. Washington, London, and Paris are likely able to bring enough pressure to bear on Lisbon that China will not settle on an island in NATO’s heart. The unknown variable is debt. Will Beijing buy so many Portuguese bonds that Lisbon cannot say no? Or will Europe exploit Portugal’s dependence on Euro rescue funds for its geopolitical aims to eliminate any designs China has on the Azores? We will see.

Seidler's recommendation dovetails with Dr. Barnett's urging a re-newing of Trans-Atlantic alliance and the expanding role of NATO in forging cooporation verus confrontation with an emerging China.

There is a lot to doubt about China’s intentions. The growing nationalism, the behavior in cyberspace, and the more aggressive stance in the East and South China Seas speak for themselves. Nevertheless NATO Europe must focus on cooperation rather than confrontation. The reality is that the U.S. and NATO have already developed templates for successful cooperation with China’s navy off the Horn of Africa. Such measures should be continued and expanded, for example with counter-piracy, humanitarian assistance, and counter-terrorism efforts. However, the reality is that China is also developing its navy as an instrument of Indo-Pacific power projection, which will have the side-effect of enabling it to pursue its interests in the Atlantic stronger than before.

Read the whole article: Will China’s Navy Soon Be Operating in the Atlantic?
 

As one who participated in the same long term simulation that Dr. Barnett referred to in his article, I too have reached similar conclusions. Without going into detail about what is currently a confidential simulation, it was readily apparent to me that Europe with all her attendant problems, is also set for a course correction that sees the possibility of countries like Sweden and Finland joining NATO. Another development sees Germany after unsheathing her saber in Afghanistan realizing that they need to be more expeditionary and assume a responsible role in policing the global commons. Their plan to launch several long range F125 Frigates reflect the awareness of those responsibilities. Other European Nations are also building vessels that are designed to extend their reach across the global commons in a policing manner. This dovetails well with the current force structure of the U.S. Navy that retains the ability to play the leviathan force, capable of global reach.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Back on the Bridge, and Forging Ahead!

Forging on ahead!

Wikistrat North American Energy Export Boom

The blog has been a bit quiet this past week as I started teaching a new round of classes, and contributing to two simulations for Wikistrat, What Comes After Chavez? and, an in-depth project, the North American Energy Export Boom. Both simulations are excellent, and the cloud of minds that have been assembled, have led to insights beyond my expectations. Mindful of neglecting the blog, I want to step back onto the bridge, and into the realm of history, and visit my favorite subject, naval history and how it relates to this nation's heritage and future security.

USS Iowa BB-61

tour route of Iowa

A couple of weeks ago, I attended a presentation by Robert Kent, President and founder of the Pacific Battleship Center, now tasked with preserving the USS Iowa BB-61 the Battleship of Presidents as a living museum and education center, soon to be stationed at Pier 87 in San Pedro, California. I wrote stationed, because unlike other museum ships, the Iowa along with her sister the Wisconsin, is mandated by Congress to be kept in a state or readiness, so if the need arises, they can be returned to duty to defend the nation.

Robert Kent, CEO, Pacific Battleship Center

What Robert Kent conveyed to those gathered was a view into how the Iowa will be preserved, and how it will convey not only the history of it's long service, but the history of the great gun ships down through history. More than just examples of firepower will be displayed, visitors will learn about the level of engineering skill that went into designing, and building the massive turrets with a precision that compared to the best Swiss watches. As visitors move deeper into the center of the great ship, they will experience what it was like to live and work aboard the ship, from her commissioning on Washington's Birthday, 1943, to the last time her ensign was lowered in 1990.
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The Iowa is a living example of the industrial ingenuity and the skill of the thousands of workers who fashioned the machinery that even today stands as an engineering marvel. Using the latest technology, visitors will be able to experience via the magic developed in Hollywood, a "Life at Sea." as they are taken on tours, guided by experts who will give them the experience of being on a active duty ship. Without giving away any trade secrets the tours will set the bar for museum experiences, to a new level. I can not say enough about this amazing enterprise.  After meeting Robert and his indispensable partner Trish Place, I was impressed enough to be willing to swab the deck, chip paint, and any other task, just to share in their passion for this great ship. They have led this effort with all the skill of the greatest naval captains who ever commanded a ship and deserve a fleet wide signal of Bravo Zulu.

As noted above, the battleship is to be maintained in a state of readiness in the event of having to be recalled to duty. Recent developments in armaments have been touted as making gun ships completely obsolete, where million dollar a shot cruise missiles, drones, and the soon to be deployed, railgun which if all goes well, will be on navy ships within five years. But wait! is it wise to shed the tried and true methods of defense? One of the advantages of the Iowa is that she is equipped with both guns, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles. There is a soon to be released fiction movie based on the board game "Battleship," where a modern naval fleet when confronted with an alien invasion must fall back to the old reliable and obsolete battleship to save planet Earth. I know this is great fiction, but recent developments in a weapons system that will defeat electronics, including radar, computers, and the control of missiles, was successfully tested by the Air Force in May, 2011. This technology uses HPM (high power microwave), which is the non-nuclear equivalent of the EMP (electromagnetic pulse) weapon. It stands to reason that what we have now, will soon be had by other nations, (think nukes). So given that reality, it's back to the future for war-fighting.

A final thought about the battleship and her main armament the 16 inch gun, and it's amazing accuracy, along with the relative cost per round, compared to the cost of a cruise missile, is something to ponder when considering the cost of launching hundreds of cruise missiles into Libya last year. A few weeks ago, I attended the West 2012 Conference about the Navy in the 21st century, and listened, as both the Navy and Marines discussed the need to maintain the ability to preform a forced entry by sea, something that hearkens back to the days of Alexander the Great. Hopefully, that day never comes, but until the railgun, or some other technological advancement is developed to defeat HPM weapons, the last two Iowa class battleships stand ready to answer the call.

For those who would like to be a plank owner, the window is still open for a couple more months.
USS Iowa Plank owner

The World According to Thomas PM Barnett

Earlier this year I was privileged to be invited to become an contributing analysis at a new enterprise, that by it's own description is;“A Global Marketplace of Geopolitical Analysis.” Over the past ten months Wikistrat has grown to now include some of the most tuned-in group of experts and analysts ever assembled, all for the purpose of providing a real time analysis tool. Recently the CEO of Wikistrat, Joe Zamel wrote a post on Dr. Thomas PM Barnett's Blog explaining how Dr. Barnett was a major influence in founding this team. He went on to urge readers to view the series of briefs that explain the "Five Strategic Flows" that will drive the advance of globalization and connectivity into the future. As a way of sharing these briefs in full, I have embed them below for your viewing. It takes about an hour to watch all six briefs; them you are encouraged to form your own analysis of Barnett's vision of the future. You may not agree with his vision, but it will fill your mind with nuggets of pure information to chew upon as you decide if you are going to be a passenger, or step forward to be involved in building a future worthy of your children and grandchildren. Now for Dr. Barnett.

Wikistrat's "The World According to Tom Barnett" (Introduction, and the Pentagon's New Map) Pt 1

Wikistrat's "The World According to Tom Barnett" (Flow of People) Pt 2

Wikistrat's "The World According to Tom Barnett" (Flow of Money)  Pt 3

Wikistrat's "The World According to Tom Barnett" (Flow of Energy) Pt 4

Wikistrat's "The World According to Tom Barnett" (Flow of Food) Pt 5

Wikistrat's "The World According to Tom Barnett" (Flow of Security) Pt 6

Finally, for those who have not seen Dr. Barnett's explanation for how Wikistrat came about.

"My Best Explanation of Wikistrat Yet."

Global Cities: The Future Centers of Power

Beijing skyline

Mubai skyline

Urbanization

The past two week has seen an ongoing competition sponsored by Wikistrat and judged by their chief analysis Thomas PM Barnett. Barnett provided his readers with an update on the week two results in a post this week. He begins by explaining how it is run and his responsibility.

As head judge of Wikistrat’s International Grand Strategy Competition, I wanted to update everybody on what’s emerged across the second week of the contest. As you may already know, the competition brings together approximately 30 teams comprised of PhD and masters students from elite international schools and world-renowned think tanks. Those teams, evenly distributed over a dozen or so countries (so as to encourage intra-country as well as inter-country competition), were challenged in Week 2 to come up with national and regional trajectories in relation to their country-team assignments (Brazil, China, EU, India, Iran, Israel, Japan, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, South Africa, Turkey & US).

As head judge, I assign points to teams based on their activity throughout the week. In this second week, each team generated those two trajectories to the tune of about 10,000 words each, or close to 300,000 words across all the teams. Naturally, a ton of interesting nuggets emerged, so here’s my hit list of provocative ideas.

Those nuggets number twelve theories or visions of the future and range from seeing the U.S. re-focus on the Western Hemisphere, and the EU encouraging immigration from fellow Roman Catholic states/regions, to India and China's growing influence. One topic heading caught my eye because I had just been reading another blog that had a great post that supported the contention that:

4) The future is all about who’s got the most global cities (EU2/Oxford)

Barnett has this to add about this opinion from the Oxford team.

I’m a big believer in this, because if you add up the coastal megacities of the world, you’ve got half the planet’s population and the vast majority of its connectivity and traffic. Get the coastal megacities wired up right, and globalization can’t fail. Team Oxford brought this out in their critique of Europe’s lack of global cities, saying that, besides London, none of the capitals really qualify on the scale of such behemoths as New York, Los Angeles, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Mumbai, Istanbul, etc. EU2’s point: make the investment if you want to stay relevant in the rule setting.

Read more:
Grand Strategic Competition Update (Week 2)

Shanghai skyline

The support for the comments about global cities is found in this post from The Enterprise Resilience Management Blog where Steve DeAngelis writes this about emerging market consumers and where they will live.

In several past posts, I've made the assertion that economic progress generally precedes political transformation. The logic for that is fairly straight forward. When a population moves out of poverty and into the middle class (i.e., its members find themselves with discretionary spending money), their attention naturally turns to politics. Why? The reasons are many. To name a few: they don't want their hard-earned cash taxed too heavily; they want freedom of movement and expression; and they expect the government to provide them with services that improve their quality of life. Because economic progress has such a dramatic impact on politics, both political and economic analysts are carefully watching the emergence of the new global upper and middle classes. Fareed Zakaria told Nora Dunne, "The growth in emerging markets is not just at the economic level. It's also happening in terms of psychology. Chinese, Indians, and Koreans are feeling a much greater sense of political confidence and assertiveness. You see this on the world stage everywhere."

Zakaria's claim that economic progress is leading to political transformation "everywhere" may sound like hyperbole, but it is not far from the mark. There are only a few dark corners of the world where globalization has yet to shine its light. Most new members joining the global upper and middle classes will come from urban settings. Analysts from McKinsey & Company claim, "Over the next 15 years, 600 cities will account for more than 60 percent of global GDP growth."

The next sentence in the article has a link to interactive map that allows the viewer to see the pattern of growth. DeAngelis quotes from an article published by McKinsely.

"More than 20 of the world's top 50 cities ranked by GDP will be located in Asia by the year 2025, up from 8 in 2007. During that same time period, our research suggests, more than half of Europe's top 50 cities will drop off the list, as will 3 in North America. In this new landscape of urban economic power, Shanghai and Beijing will outrank Los Angeles and London, while Mumbai and Doha will surpass Munich and Denver. The implications—for companies' growth priorities, countries' economic relationships, and the world's sustainability strategy—are profound." ["Urban economic clout moves east," by Richard Dobbs, Jaana Remes, and Sven Smit, McKinsely Quarterly.

Read more
Emerging Market Consumers, Part 1

Here is the link to the McKinsey Quarterly site and the interactive map that is an excellent source to illustrate the effective spread of the middle class around the globe. Click on the map link and see the world of the future open to explore with the click of your mouse.
Cities: The Next Frontier for Global Growth

The Bygone Tyrant!

Mubarak toppled

Louis XVI

Hosni Mubarak has slunk from the world stage, not as spectacular as Louis XVI or the Ceausescu's. But in a post dramatic fashion that saw him hesitate, then in the face of a massive ground swell of peaceful cries for him to go, he leaves. What is not seen, was the implied tip of the bayonet wielded by the Egyptian Army whose middle and junior officer corp were not beholding to the old guard and if asked in a few years down range, would probably admit that they would never have turned their guns on their fellow citizens with whom they shared the same arrested existence.

Thomas Barnett and his associates at Wikistrat pretty much called this dance during this first round, just as if it were a hoe-down barn dance where the dance caller guides the dancers. In this case it was a collaboration of Barnett and company and their live wikistrat analysis who were subscriber/readers who participated in the decision making process by visiting a Virtual War Room where a reader could vote for the possible outcome based on their own perception of the crisis. The outcome was remarkable achievement in crowdsourcing  as Barnett notes below.

This train keeps rolling!

Elvis, we are now told, has truly "left the building," as Mubarak has handed power to the senior military council.

So the journey along Wikistrat's 1-2-3-4 scenarios is complete: explosive rip of initial protests shakes everything up but triggers no Tunisia-like fall, then the steady drip of protests, strikes, defections, etc, pushes Mubarak into a number of "slips", none of which placate the mob. Eventually, the military steps in (apparently Leon Panetta's prediction was dead-on and just a few hours off) and takes the Turkish path (assuming temporary rule but promising the much-desired free elections).

The table has been run.

Read more:
Mubarak Steps Down

For me the back story is how over the course of a week the judgement of the crowd (Wikistrat readers), picked the scenarios that are as of today proving true. The War Room laid out four choices in several categories and as noted below; after several days a pattern emerged that never wavered.


Unfolding Pathways
■Military's tightening grip (42%) (39%) (36%) (37%) (36%)


■Movement's steady drip (9%) (13%) (16%) (19%) (18%) (24%)


■Protests' explosive rip (33%) (30%) (22%) (21%) (22%) (21%)


■Mubarak's many slips (16%) (19%) (23%) (24%) (19%)


Regime Response
■Big man steps down (40%) (39%) (41%) (38%) (37%) (36%) (37%)


■(Next military) man up! (26%) (22%) (31%) (32%) (34%)


■Systemic crack down (26%) (32%) (19%) (21%) (20%)


■Oppositions leaders hunted down (9%) (7%) (9%) (8%)


US Response
■"Too preliminary to take a stand" (47%) (51%) (54%) (53%) (54%) (44%)


■"I'm with the Band" (of Netizens) (21%) (17%) (20%) (21%) (20%) (36%)


■"Let me be the first to shake your hand!" (24%) (23%) (22%) (21%) (17%)


■Stand by your man! (9%) (7%) (5%) (4%) (3%)


Regional Responses
■Frantic firewalling (35%) (34%) (39%) (36%) (38%) (39%)


■Dominoes keep falling (21%) (22%) (23%) (23%) (22%) (26%) (25%)


■Head-in-sand stalling (23%) (24%) (25%) (23%) (26%) (21%) (22%)


■Tehran comes calling (21%) (20%) (19%) (16%) (15%) (14%)


Global Responses
■"Who lost Egypt?" (42%) (43%) (42%) (39%) (40%)


■"We are all Egyptians now!" (28%) (26%) (28%) (29%) (30%) (32%)


■"Let my people go!" (28%) (26%) (25%) (28%) (26%)


■"Boycott Pharaoh's cotton (2%) (6%) (5%) (4%) (3%)


Tipping Points
■Viennese sausage-making (40%) (45%) (46%) (45%)


■That iconic photo of ElBaradei on a tank (19%) (17%) (21%) (22%) (21%) (25%) (26%)


■"Murderers row" press conference (35%) (31%) (26%) (24%) (26%) (21%)


■First UN sanctions against newest "rogue regime" (7%) (9%) (8%) (9%)


Exit Glidepath

■Think Turkey, now (35%) (39%) (43%) (49%) (53%) (52%) (51%)


■Think Pakistan, anytime (23%) (22%) (32%) (27%) (24%) (25%) (26%)


■Think Iran, 1979 (23%) (24%) (12%) (13%) (14%) (15%)


■Think China, 1989 (19%) (15%) (14%) (11%) (10%) (9%)

Read more
Egypt Coming Together Nicely Enough


Close by, another astute observer of the world scene whose gaze is usually cast out to sea, filed these thoughts on the changes in Egypt today. Galhran of information dissemination  writes;

Credit Connectivity. We are all standing witness to a manifestation of the power of connectivity. Whether it is the internet, cellular technologies, Al Jazeera, or any number of networks and networking tools leveraged for communications and information flows and access - connectivity is the underwriting power that is motivating social changes globally in 2011.

Credit the Egyptian Army. The initial decision to not engage the protesters directly in protection of the regime has proven the Egyptian Army as a remarkably professional organization at time of extreme pressure. Internal revolutions can stir many emotions, but the professionalism demonstrated in Egyptian Army's character, methods, spirit, and conduct at the street level day after day is the single greatest contributing factor that led to today's result.

Credit the US military. For the tens of thousands of US Marines who have deployed on MEUs over the last many, many years and worked along side the Egyptian military training them to be professional soldiers, take pride in your efforts this day. You cannot be credited as a primary cause of the professionalism demonstrated by the Egyptian Army, but by any measurement you can be credited as a significant contributing influence towards that professionalism.

There is more and is well worth the read
A Few Thoughts on Egypt

Egypt after Hosni Mubarak وبعد مصر حسنى مبارك

The Last Pharaoh?

Egyptians in the streets Jan 25, 2011

Cario Jan 28, 2011

Muslim Brotherhood, Next??

Tom Barnett and Wikistrat are planning their,"version of a war room on Egypt" as this ancient civilization threatens to spin hopelessly out of control. In a quote from CNN.com Barnett lays out this scenario.

Thomas P. Barnett of forecasting group Wikistrat put it more colorfully: "Let me give you the four scariest words I can't pronounce in Arabic: وبعد مصر حسنى مبارك  "Egypt after Hosni Mubarak" ...

In any event, says Barnett -- formerly a professor at the U.S. Navy War College -- events in Egypt and Tunisia show that the "Islamist narrative" to explain the woes of the Arab world is being challenged by a maturing and well-educated youth movement whose expectations of a better life have been dashed by economic stagnation and a stifling political atmosphere . . .

Barnett, chief analyst at Wikistrat, says Mubarak's best -- and perhaps only -- option may now be to announce an "exit date" to take the sting out of the protests, organize an orderly transition to fresh elections and hand authority to a caretaker Cabinet that could focus on growing the economy . . .

Tune in at:
Wikistrat: Excercise on Egyptian's "Angry Friday" VERTICAL SHOCK

In a related post, "CoreGap Weekly Bulletin" #11.04 has just been released and is available for down loading. This edition covers.

This week our bulletin covers, among many:

1.Terra Incognita - Two strategic narratives duke it out in the Pentagon

2.Smooth summit, as Obama doesn’t spoil Hu’s legacy photo-op

3.Iran ends lavish energy and food subsidies in historic reform gamble

4. Duvalier’s return to Haiti complicates election stalemate

5.Turkey’s busy foreign policy signals regional leadership ambition

It is still time to sign up for the basic subscription which I have found most insightful and loaded with great background material.

Read more
CoreGap Bulletin #11.04

UPDATE
Wikistrat: Virtual Strategic War-Room

Voting tally from the War Room

UPDATE II
This post comes by way of CDR Salamander, naval centric blogger who offers this realistic but sad take on where Egypt is heading. Take to time to read the link the Cdr has to Michael J Totten and how he called this half a decade ago.
CDR SALAMANDER: Sandy Pessimism