The Bygone Tyrant!

Mubarak toppled

Louis XVI

Hosni Mubarak has slunk from the world stage, not as spectacular as Louis XVI or the Ceausescu's. But in a post dramatic fashion that saw him hesitate, then in the face of a massive ground swell of peaceful cries for him to go, he leaves. What is not seen, was the implied tip of the bayonet wielded by the Egyptian Army whose middle and junior officer corp were not beholding to the old guard and if asked in a few years down range, would probably admit that they would never have turned their guns on their fellow citizens with whom they shared the same arrested existence.

Thomas Barnett and his associates at Wikistrat pretty much called this dance during this first round, just as if it were a hoe-down barn dance where the dance caller guides the dancers. In this case it was a collaboration of Barnett and company and their live wikistrat analysis who were subscriber/readers who participated in the decision making process by visiting a Virtual War Room where a reader could vote for the possible outcome based on their own perception of the crisis. The outcome was remarkable achievement in crowdsourcing  as Barnett notes below.

This train keeps rolling!

Elvis, we are now told, has truly "left the building," as Mubarak has handed power to the senior military council.

So the journey along Wikistrat's 1-2-3-4 scenarios is complete: explosive rip of initial protests shakes everything up but triggers no Tunisia-like fall, then the steady drip of protests, strikes, defections, etc, pushes Mubarak into a number of "slips", none of which placate the mob. Eventually, the military steps in (apparently Leon Panetta's prediction was dead-on and just a few hours off) and takes the Turkish path (assuming temporary rule but promising the much-desired free elections).

The table has been run.

Read more:
Mubarak Steps Down

For me the back story is how over the course of a week the judgement of the crowd (Wikistrat readers), picked the scenarios that are as of today proving true. The War Room laid out four choices in several categories and as noted below; after several days a pattern emerged that never wavered.


Unfolding Pathways
■Military's tightening grip (42%) (39%) (36%) (37%) (36%)


■Movement's steady drip (9%) (13%) (16%) (19%) (18%) (24%)


■Protests' explosive rip (33%) (30%) (22%) (21%) (22%) (21%)


■Mubarak's many slips (16%) (19%) (23%) (24%) (19%)


Regime Response
■Big man steps down (40%) (39%) (41%) (38%) (37%) (36%) (37%)


■(Next military) man up! (26%) (22%) (31%) (32%) (34%)


■Systemic crack down (26%) (32%) (19%) (21%) (20%)


■Oppositions leaders hunted down (9%) (7%) (9%) (8%)


US Response
■"Too preliminary to take a stand" (47%) (51%) (54%) (53%) (54%) (44%)


■"I'm with the Band" (of Netizens) (21%) (17%) (20%) (21%) (20%) (36%)


■"Let me be the first to shake your hand!" (24%) (23%) (22%) (21%) (17%)


■Stand by your man! (9%) (7%) (5%) (4%) (3%)


Regional Responses
■Frantic firewalling (35%) (34%) (39%) (36%) (38%) (39%)


■Dominoes keep falling (21%) (22%) (23%) (23%) (22%) (26%) (25%)


■Head-in-sand stalling (23%) (24%) (25%) (23%) (26%) (21%) (22%)


■Tehran comes calling (21%) (20%) (19%) (16%) (15%) (14%)


Global Responses
■"Who lost Egypt?" (42%) (43%) (42%) (39%) (40%)


■"We are all Egyptians now!" (28%) (26%) (28%) (29%) (30%) (32%)


■"Let my people go!" (28%) (26%) (25%) (28%) (26%)


■"Boycott Pharaoh's cotton (2%) (6%) (5%) (4%) (3%)


Tipping Points
■Viennese sausage-making (40%) (45%) (46%) (45%)


■That iconic photo of ElBaradei on a tank (19%) (17%) (21%) (22%) (21%) (25%) (26%)


■"Murderers row" press conference (35%) (31%) (26%) (24%) (26%) (21%)


■First UN sanctions against newest "rogue regime" (7%) (9%) (8%) (9%)


Exit Glidepath

■Think Turkey, now (35%) (39%) (43%) (49%) (53%) (52%) (51%)


■Think Pakistan, anytime (23%) (22%) (32%) (27%) (24%) (25%) (26%)


■Think Iran, 1979 (23%) (24%) (12%) (13%) (14%) (15%)


■Think China, 1989 (19%) (15%) (14%) (11%) (10%) (9%)

Read more
Egypt Coming Together Nicely Enough


Close by, another astute observer of the world scene whose gaze is usually cast out to sea, filed these thoughts on the changes in Egypt today. Galhran of information dissemination  writes;

Credit Connectivity. We are all standing witness to a manifestation of the power of connectivity. Whether it is the internet, cellular technologies, Al Jazeera, or any number of networks and networking tools leveraged for communications and information flows and access - connectivity is the underwriting power that is motivating social changes globally in 2011.

Credit the Egyptian Army. The initial decision to not engage the protesters directly in protection of the regime has proven the Egyptian Army as a remarkably professional organization at time of extreme pressure. Internal revolutions can stir many emotions, but the professionalism demonstrated in Egyptian Army's character, methods, spirit, and conduct at the street level day after day is the single greatest contributing factor that led to today's result.

Credit the US military. For the tens of thousands of US Marines who have deployed on MEUs over the last many, many years and worked along side the Egyptian military training them to be professional soldiers, take pride in your efforts this day. You cannot be credited as a primary cause of the professionalism demonstrated by the Egyptian Army, but by any measurement you can be credited as a significant contributing influence towards that professionalism.

There is more and is well worth the read
A Few Thoughts on Egypt

Changing of the Guard

One of the first blogs I read on Sunday morning, is Thomas Barnett's column. This weeks topic, The end of the boomer presidency looks to the future and the next generation of leaders we will entrust to lead our nation.

.

Tom begins:

Whatever this national election's outcome, one thing seems clear: it marks the end of the boomers' presidential reign. As if applying a devastating coda to this era's highly leveraged lifestyle, our current financial crisis indicates that we have reached the end of that political generation's dysfunctional hyper-partisanship and lack of fiscal discipline.
Nothing displays our collective desire to move beyond the boomers more than the fact that the two most exciting national candidates fielded in this election are -- in effect --post-boomers: Barack Obama and Sarah Palin. Even the Republicans' turn toward John McCain represents an implicit rebuke of the boomers' political generation in that he promises a pre-boomer return to adult supervision in Washington.

The dullard of the four? That would be the quintessential boomer Joe Biden.

This column led me to reflect on a book written almost 20 years ago by William Strauss and Neil Howe, Generations: The History of America's Future, 1584 to 2069. In their book they divide American history into seasonal cycles of history. These seasons are further divided into generations by birth year and are classified as one of four types of generations or historical periods. Since the 15th century, the only exception to the "four-season" cycle was the our Civil War, when the generation type jumped from Reactive to Adaptive with no Civic generation.

Strauss and Howe had warned in their book about electing Idealist "Boomers" to lead the nation before their elder years. I decided to take a little trip back in history and in an unscientific glance test their theory.

Using a source from American Generations - Cycles in U.S. History , found at http://www.timepage.org/ I will examine the leadership of generations from the Revolution to today.

Awakening Generation - Prophet, Idealist Type (1701-1723)

The only noted near leaders of this generation were Benjamin Franklin, and Samuel Adams, advisers to those who actually led.

The Age of Enlightenment - 1st Turning, High (1693-1733)

Liberty Generation - Nomad, Reactive Type (1724-1741)George Washington, John Adams.

The French and Indian War Era - 3rd Turning, Unraveling (1744-1773)

Republican Generation - Hero, Civic Type (1742-1766) Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, James Monroe,

The American Revolution Era - 4th Turning, Crisis (1774-1787)

Compromise Generation - Artist, Adaptive Type (1767-1791)Andrew Jackson, John Quincy Adams, Martin Van Buren, William Harrison, John Tyler, Zachary Taylor, James Buchanan, Dolley Madison.

Era of Good Feeling - 1st Turning, High (1788-1821)

Transcendental Generation - Prophet, Idealist Type (1792-1821) Abraham Lincoln, James Polk, Millard Fillmore, Franklin Pierce, Andrew Johnson.

Transcendental Awakening Era - 2nd Turning, Awakening (1822-1837)

Gilded Generation - Nomad, Reactive Type (1822-1842) Ulysses S. Grant, Rutherford Hayes, James Garfield, Chester Arthur, Grover Cleveland, Benjamin Harrison,

Era of Slavery Expansion - 3rd Turning, Unraveling (1838-1859)

missing generation - Hero, Civic Type

Civil War Era - 4th Turning, Crisis (1860-1865)
Progressive Generation - Artist, Adaptive Type (1843-1859)Theodore Roosevelt, William McKinley, William Taft, and Woodrow Wilson.

The Gilded Age - 1st Turning, High (1866-1885)

Missionary Generation - Prophet, Idealist Type (1860-1882)Franklin Delano Roosevelt, Warren Harding , Calvin Coolidge , Herbert Hoover.

Missionary Awakening Era - 2nd Turning, Awakening (1886-1909)

Lost Generation - Nomad, Reactive Type (1883-1900)Dwight Eisenhower, Harry Truman,

World War I / Prohibition Era - 3rd Turning, Unraveling (1910-1929)

G.I. Generation - Hero, Civic Type (1901-1924)John Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson, Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, and George Bush Sr.

Depression / World War II Era - 4th Turning, Crisis (1930-1944)

Silent Generation - Artist, Adaptive Type (1925-1942) As yet only also-rans, populate this group Walter Mondale, Robert F. Kennedy, Edward M. Kennedy and the question mark? John McCain.

Era of Superpower America - 1st Turning, High (1945-1965)

Boom Generation - Prophet, Idealist Type (1943-1960),William Clinton, George W. Bush.

Boom Awakening Era - 2nd Turning, Awakening (1966-1980)

Thirteenth Generation (Generation X) - Nomad, Reactive Type (1961-1981) Barack Obama and Sarah Palin. One of these two, will be either President or the Vice President.

As we examine the list above, a couple of things stand out. The only generation that seems to produce any abundance of great leaders is the Civic generations. The others, usually only have one or two, standouts among many whose names are know only to historians. The two great leaders that were produced by the Idealistic generations, Lincoln and Franklin Roosevelt came to power during times of crisis and in Roosevelt's case came to his greatest hour in his elder years. Howe and Strauss had expressed concern that Idealist coming to power during their middle years would have a difficult time overcoming a crisis, IE, George W Bush. They also noted that the military leaders during a crisis were most successful when they came from a reactive generation. Washington, U.S. Grant and Eisenhower, all of our current military leaders are Boomers, soon to be replaced by up and coming Reactive X-Geners.

The above observations are only brain food for thinking about the past and a hint at what the future may produce.