The Bygone Tyrant!

Mubarak toppled

Louis XVI

Hosni Mubarak has slunk from the world stage, not as spectacular as Louis XVI or the Ceausescu's. But in a post dramatic fashion that saw him hesitate, then in the face of a massive ground swell of peaceful cries for him to go, he leaves. What is not seen, was the implied tip of the bayonet wielded by the Egyptian Army whose middle and junior officer corp were not beholding to the old guard and if asked in a few years down range, would probably admit that they would never have turned their guns on their fellow citizens with whom they shared the same arrested existence.

Thomas Barnett and his associates at Wikistrat pretty much called this dance during this first round, just as if it were a hoe-down barn dance where the dance caller guides the dancers. In this case it was a collaboration of Barnett and company and their live wikistrat analysis who were subscriber/readers who participated in the decision making process by visiting a Virtual War Room where a reader could vote for the possible outcome based on their own perception of the crisis. The outcome was remarkable achievement in crowdsourcing  as Barnett notes below.

This train keeps rolling!

Elvis, we are now told, has truly "left the building," as Mubarak has handed power to the senior military council.

So the journey along Wikistrat's 1-2-3-4 scenarios is complete: explosive rip of initial protests shakes everything up but triggers no Tunisia-like fall, then the steady drip of protests, strikes, defections, etc, pushes Mubarak into a number of "slips", none of which placate the mob. Eventually, the military steps in (apparently Leon Panetta's prediction was dead-on and just a few hours off) and takes the Turkish path (assuming temporary rule but promising the much-desired free elections).

The table has been run.

Read more:
Mubarak Steps Down

For me the back story is how over the course of a week the judgement of the crowd (Wikistrat readers), picked the scenarios that are as of today proving true. The War Room laid out four choices in several categories and as noted below; after several days a pattern emerged that never wavered.


Unfolding Pathways
■Military's tightening grip (42%) (39%) (36%) (37%) (36%)


■Movement's steady drip (9%) (13%) (16%) (19%) (18%) (24%)


■Protests' explosive rip (33%) (30%) (22%) (21%) (22%) (21%)


■Mubarak's many slips (16%) (19%) (23%) (24%) (19%)


Regime Response
■Big man steps down (40%) (39%) (41%) (38%) (37%) (36%) (37%)


■(Next military) man up! (26%) (22%) (31%) (32%) (34%)


■Systemic crack down (26%) (32%) (19%) (21%) (20%)


■Oppositions leaders hunted down (9%) (7%) (9%) (8%)


US Response
■"Too preliminary to take a stand" (47%) (51%) (54%) (53%) (54%) (44%)


■"I'm with the Band" (of Netizens) (21%) (17%) (20%) (21%) (20%) (36%)


■"Let me be the first to shake your hand!" (24%) (23%) (22%) (21%) (17%)


■Stand by your man! (9%) (7%) (5%) (4%) (3%)


Regional Responses
■Frantic firewalling (35%) (34%) (39%) (36%) (38%) (39%)


■Dominoes keep falling (21%) (22%) (23%) (23%) (22%) (26%) (25%)


■Head-in-sand stalling (23%) (24%) (25%) (23%) (26%) (21%) (22%)


■Tehran comes calling (21%) (20%) (19%) (16%) (15%) (14%)


Global Responses
■"Who lost Egypt?" (42%) (43%) (42%) (39%) (40%)


■"We are all Egyptians now!" (28%) (26%) (28%) (29%) (30%) (32%)


■"Let my people go!" (28%) (26%) (25%) (28%) (26%)


■"Boycott Pharaoh's cotton (2%) (6%) (5%) (4%) (3%)


Tipping Points
■Viennese sausage-making (40%) (45%) (46%) (45%)


■That iconic photo of ElBaradei on a tank (19%) (17%) (21%) (22%) (21%) (25%) (26%)


■"Murderers row" press conference (35%) (31%) (26%) (24%) (26%) (21%)


■First UN sanctions against newest "rogue regime" (7%) (9%) (8%) (9%)


Exit Glidepath

■Think Turkey, now (35%) (39%) (43%) (49%) (53%) (52%) (51%)


■Think Pakistan, anytime (23%) (22%) (32%) (27%) (24%) (25%) (26%)


■Think Iran, 1979 (23%) (24%) (12%) (13%) (14%) (15%)


■Think China, 1989 (19%) (15%) (14%) (11%) (10%) (9%)

Read more
Egypt Coming Together Nicely Enough


Close by, another astute observer of the world scene whose gaze is usually cast out to sea, filed these thoughts on the changes in Egypt today. Galhran of information dissemination  writes;

Credit Connectivity. We are all standing witness to a manifestation of the power of connectivity. Whether it is the internet, cellular technologies, Al Jazeera, or any number of networks and networking tools leveraged for communications and information flows and access - connectivity is the underwriting power that is motivating social changes globally in 2011.

Credit the Egyptian Army. The initial decision to not engage the protesters directly in protection of the regime has proven the Egyptian Army as a remarkably professional organization at time of extreme pressure. Internal revolutions can stir many emotions, but the professionalism demonstrated in Egyptian Army's character, methods, spirit, and conduct at the street level day after day is the single greatest contributing factor that led to today's result.

Credit the US military. For the tens of thousands of US Marines who have deployed on MEUs over the last many, many years and worked along side the Egyptian military training them to be professional soldiers, take pride in your efforts this day. You cannot be credited as a primary cause of the professionalism demonstrated by the Egyptian Army, but by any measurement you can be credited as a significant contributing influence towards that professionalism.

There is more and is well worth the read
A Few Thoughts on Egypt

The Armchair Admiral and the Zen

The observations of galhran of Information Dissemination have graced this blog before and today is no exception. Joining in, is Mark of Zenpundit who offers a counter-point to Galrahn's post on Mexico.

First, in a followup to a post I wrote last week Naval Hearings, The Ships, The Crews and The Mission in The 21st Century comes this in depth review of the hearings written in a balanced tone that finds more in common among those testifying than previously mentioned.

Both Dr. Barnett and Dr. Thompson agreed on two interesting points. First, if we build an interoperable national fleet in the spirit of the Navy's maritime strategy we will get good results. Second, the fleet is not likely to get larger without smaller, cheaper warships. I enjoyed the way Dr. Barnett puts it in his written testimony:

Read more:

Notes From Last Thursday's House Subcommittee Hearing

And then in his capacity as a guest blogger at for the United States Naval Institute Blog,

Galrahn adds his thoughts to the conversation began by Mark of Zenpundit about whether Mexico is a failed state or as Galrahn suggests a weak state.

Quoting DNI, Admiral Dennis Blair.

"Mexico is in no danger of becoming a failed state. [Let me] repeat that. Mexico is in no danger of becoming a failed state. The violence we see now is the result of Mexico taking action against the drug cartels."

The important observation by Galrahn addresses our COIN strategy and raises an interesting point with this statement.

My point would be this: there is no value in the cartels overthrowing the Mexican government because its existence helps them more than its absence helps them.

But this is my larger point. There are currently zero, none, nada 4GW/COIN/Whatever military solutions for failed states; our emerging 4GW/COIN/Whatever doctrines, strategies, and theories only apply for weak states that have legitimate governments that can be supported. Failed states are problems that can be handled, even in an ugly way, by conventional military forces. The danger to US strategic interests is not failed states, as is often claimed, rather the real danger to US strategic interests always comes from weak states.

Read More:

Failed States Are Worse Than Weak States

I agree with his final assessment that if the cartel's take out the legitimate government our options become certain. Currently, we have few options other than supporting the current Mexican government in their efforts to overcome the cartel's grip. The important issue is that another voice is added to the conversation, which is what Mark was attempting to do, by raising the question in the first place. It is better for us to prepare for every contingency by launching discussions that air the views of all who look south with concern for our neighbor. Mark, has responded with Galrahn's post this way.

I found Galrahn’s argument to be very intriguing. There’s the issue of Mexico specifically in his post and then Weak States being worse than Failed States as a general rule. First, Mexico:

The thought experiment I penned previously aside, Mexico is not yet a Failed State and I hope it does not become one - though I would not wager a mortgage payment on it staying away from catastrophic failure. Mexico is definitely, in my view, already a Weak State suddenly resisting the process of being “hollowed out”, slowly, by vicious drug cartels. I wish President Calderon well in his efforts to crush the narco networks, but just as America cannot avoid admitting that our drug laws are impacting Mexico severely, let’s not let the fact that Mexico’s ruling oligarchy has also brought this disaster on themselves with their self-aggrandizingly corrupt political economy escape comment.

Mark concludes by asking for input.

That brings us to the general question of, is a Failed State better or worse than a Weak State whose tattered shreds of international legitimacy prevent robust foreign intervention? I am going to “punt” by inclining toward judging on a case-by-case basis. “Failed State Botswana” is not likely to impact the world very much nor is “Functional State Congo” going to look very good next to anything except Congo as the Failed State that it is. Now “Failed State China” or “Failed State Russia”, that has consequences that are the stuff of nightmares.
What do you say? Which is worse: Weak State or Failed State?

Read more Is A Weak or “Hollow” State Worse than a Failed State?

Both men are carrying the ball forward and presenting forums to discuss the issues before they become a full blown crisis that catch America unprepared. One of the main examples carried forth by Thomas Barnett in Great Powers is for people to get involved and in effect create their own public policy. For Americans this means discussion between all those interested in their nation and a free society I invite everyone who reads this to take the time to consider this issue, read, join the discussion it's free and will be welcomed by all.

ARRH! AHOY MATIES WE HAVE A PLAN!

16th Century Pirate Attack

Incidents of Piracy, 2007

U.S. Navy Group

Earlier this week I wrote a post entitled Should We Hang Them From The Highest Yardarm in The Fleet?. I commented that the U.S. Navy needed to adjust it's forward thinking to encompass the changing dynamics of naval strategy in the 21st century. In my final comments I noted that I was no expert in naval strategy, proof of that statement is this post by Galrahn, the grand scribe of Information Dissemination, who in my opinion, understands naval strategy better than anyone outside the Navy.

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His post today, answers all who questioned why the U.S. Navy does not do what the Russians propose, MOSCOW (Reuters) -- Russia, which sent a warship to Somalia's coast to combat pirates, has asked the African country for carte blanche to use force in its territorial waters.

Galrahn in his wisdom, addresses the concerns voiced by some of his readers this way.

This has been an incredible week for the United States strategic goals for fighting piracy, indeed this might have been the best week the United States has had in its strategic goals of curbing piracy this year. I got about 50 emails from a number of folks highlighting various news articles regarding the actions off Somalia, and I thank everyone who sent an email, but if you an American observing events unfolding and thinking these events represent a bad thing, I hate to be the one to tell you but you are completely missing the point when it comes to the strategic goals of the United States. Every American should be fist pumping the good news, and should avoid being misled by the media spin.

....What do you mean you don't understand? If you read this blog for any reason at all, hopefully it is so you can see the big picture and that when big events occur, you can properly place context to the event in strategic terms towards our national goals. The US policy for Somali piracy is well articulated in the maritime strategy, and is working exactly as defined. The US Navy, and the DoD at large, does not define policy, the Navy's job is to enforce national policy.

The logic of our maritime strategy becomes clear. The U.S. by holding back, is using a little reverse psychology on the rest of the World, to encourage them to take part in policing the seas. The cost of the United States maintaining a 1000 ship fleet would break our treasury. But, using our ships as the primary kinetic energy sea control system and enlisting via diplomacy, other nations with an interest in maritime security, we will achieve one of our 21st century strategy goals.

Galrahan' s post:

Observing the Strategic Success of US Policy Towards Somali Piracy

And by good fortune, Thomas Barnett in his column this week addresses the piracy problem and throws his considerable strategic vision behind what Galrahn has written. Barnett's column was posted the same day as Galrahn's, showing how great minds can independently come to the same conclusion.

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Barnett opens with this observation:

When piracy threatens global commerce, great powers need to fight back --collectively.

Nothing better signals the lack of -- and thus opportunity for -- comprehensive maritime security cooperation among the world's great powers than their collective inability to stem piracy in the Gulf of Aden and the Persian Gulf, not to mention the Straits of Malacca -- chokepoint for Asia's energy imports from the Middle East. Add it all up and we're talking $15 billion of losses every year.

And this about how a "thousand ship navy" can be had.

Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has long promoted a "thousand ship navy" that would render the world's oceans transparent and safe. Since we can barely afford the 200-odd ships we currently deploy, Mullen's vision necessarily encompasses all great-power navies. I constantly advocate a security dialogue with Iran, and there would be no better place to start than counter piracy.

For now, American naval cooperation with the world's cluster of rising great powers remains far below what it could be, reflecting the Pentagon's preference for planning against future "near peers." Today's global piracy shows this strategic reticence needs to end.

The column:

Barnett: Fight the pirates

And for a view from the other side. From Reuters, this report.

BOSASSO, Somalia (Reuters) – As dawn breaks over the Indian Ocean each morning, elders in Somali pirate bases sip strong coffee and clutch mobile phones to their ears, eager to hear the latest from the gunmen out at sea.

Have any more ships been hijacked or ransom talks concluded? Any news of the Western warships hunting them?

Ransoms bring wealth to Somali pirate bases

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Stepping back into my historian mode, piracy is as old as seafaring, and the need to control it is a measure of the financial pain endured before the trading partners affected will react. I am reminded of a passage in The Corrupting Sea: A Study of Mediterranean History by Peregrine Horden and Nicholas Purcell. They have this to say about piracy in antiquity.

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Raiders need traders upon which to prey, then. But those raiders are also, in a stronger sense, part of the world of trade; they are not just parasites. Like the transfer of goods between aristocratic estates or like government requisitions, piracy is simply another form of redistribution in an economic environment where other markets are often scarce. Aristotle rightly listed piracy as a mode of production alongside the more usual forms, such as hunting, fishing and agriculture.

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Horden and Purcell's study of the history of the pre-industrial Mediterranean, is rich with examples of piracy and it's untended role in advancing trade and security. As they note, it was Pliny the Elder, who alleges that it was fear of pirates that encouraged winter sailing.

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The result of this latest round of piracy is leading to better cooperation between nations, that in turn leads to relationships that help to dissolve mistrust.