West 2012-The Navy and Marines in the next decade

US Navy

US Marine Corps

This past week I had the pleasure of attending the WEST 2012 Conference in San Diego, where the theme was America's Military at the Crossroads: What's Out and What's In for 2012 and Beyond. I was encouraged to attend by the involvement of the event co-sponsor, the United State Naval Institute. The USNI has been in the forefront of offering a platform where those with an interest in the Navy and all the attendant aspects of strategy, history and tactics are given a forum to express and discuss their interests. The attention to the future of the sea services became all the more important in the recent changes being described as the "Strategic Pivot" to face west into the Pacific and prepare to confront what some see as a potential adversary, China, as she builds her own blue water navy. How big is this threat? Are we building the right fleet, or are we building a fleet based on the last major war WWII? What in the light of the current economic times, can we afford to build. And finally, what kind of Sailors and Marines and leaders do we need for the next two decades and beyond? Those are some of the questions that the conference's many panels attempted to answer.

ADM Mike Mullen

I was able to attend some of the many panel discussions and was able to hear former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Admiral Mike Mullen (ret), as he spoke of his vision and hopes, for the future of our defence strategy and the needs to return to the traditional role of the Navy, as both an instrument of war, and diplomacy. Now retired, he gave a visionary speech, that was refreshing in the lack of boilerplate rhetoric that some still in uniform were obligated to profess in their comments.

UltimaRatioRegis

Col Merritt Edson, USMC

As noted above, I attended because of the USNI, and had the opportunity to become acquainted with several of the major contributors to their fine blog. I had know of one young petty officer, from his posts and another who wrote under the name of UltimaRatioRegis: The Last Argument of Kings . My first introduction to  these two fine men, came during the question and answer part of a panel discussion on whether the Navy and Marines would "Hang together, or Hang Separately." I looked up to see a Petty officer standing behind the mike, where he proceeded to ask the two admirals about the quality of shipbuilding, using the example of the well known problems of his former ship, a class leader as the example. I instantly recognized him, as the young petty officer blogger noted above, and was impressed by his eloquence as he addressed the flags. The next question was raised by a Marine Lt. Col. who was reminiscent of famed Marine Col. Edson in his demeanor and the directness of his questions to the panel. His message to the panel was that the Marine Corp return to the fundamentals that were the same as those developed in 1943-44, that forced entry needs to breach the beaches in order to have a place to bring the supporting elements for a prolonged campaign. Later, I learned he was the one making the "Last Argument of Kings" from above. The point of mentioning these two gentlemen, is to reflect the quality of those who express their views on the USNI blog, and have the stones to stand before an esteemed panel and really speak for the thousands of sailors and marines who trust that those in the flag rank, the civilian leaders, and the suppliers of all manner of tools for the service; understand that the trust of the men and women in their equipment and leadership is in their hands. One would hope that those leaders, will heed the concerns from the rank and file, and step beyond the personal motives of managing their careers, or landing a future post-retirement job with a supplier, and step up to leave a lasting legacy that ensures those who serve and the nation, will have the leadership and tools to meet the 21st century requirements.

After watching several panels discuss topics, I noted that many of the attendees were brought to the point of being glassy eyed, stealthily texting, or playing with their iPhones or pads. Thankfully, each panel had at least one or two, who stepped up to show both leadership and and voiced an opinion that proved the Navy and Marines have real leaders who care about their men. These were the admirals and generals who talked about their men first, and used ample references to history to formulate their thoughts. I can't name them all, but a few stood out like, VADM Beaman, VADM Richard Hunt, and RDML Peter Gumataotao. from the Navy. The Marines were most vocally represented in the four panels I observed; and were best represented by BGen O'Donohue and BGen Daniel Yoo who shined brightly in their knowledge of history, and demonstration of leadership skills, as did the other attending Marine generals.

For an overview of the conference take the time to visit these links to the USNI blog where a summary of the message it conveys is discussed. Read each of them for ample food for thought.

The Navy-Marine Corps Team-the-Jointest

We have run out of money

The Naval Century and Global American Sea Power

Vital Roles and Surface Warfare

Where does this leave us in relation to the Strategic Pivot? Consider this, post from Thomas PM Barnett that examines US Debt and Petroleum, and their relationship to Obama's Pivot. As you examine the list of nations holding US public debt, note that besides China holding 8%, other counties together, hold 14.9%  and are important to our global naval posture to ensure that they remain confident in our ability to protect free trade, and ensure the global sea lanes that carry 90% of all the goods across the planet, remain secure.

Hong Kong: $121.9 billion (0.9 percent)

Caribbean banking centers: $148.3 (1 percent)

Taiwan: $153.4 billion (1.1 percent)

Brazil: $211.4 billion (1.5 percent)

Oil exporting countries: $229.8 billion (1.6 percent)

Mutual funds: $300.5 billion (2 percent)

Commercial banks: $301.8 billion (2.1 percent)

State, local and federal retirement funds: $320.9 billion (2.2 percent)

Money market mutual funds: $337.7 billion (2.4 percent)

United Kingdom: $346.5 billion (2.4 percent)

Private pension funds: $504.7 billion (3.5 percent)

State and local governments: $506.1 billion (3.5 percent)

Japan: $912.4 billion (6.4 percent)

U.S. households: $959.4 billion (6.6 percent)

China: $1.16 trillion (8 percent)

The U.S. Treasury: $1.63 trillion (11.3 percent)

Social Security trust fund: $2.67 trillion (19 percent)

Read more:
Charts of the Day-US Debt and Petroleum

The World According to Thomas PM Barnett

Earlier this year I was privileged to be invited to become an contributing analysis at a new enterprise, that by it's own description is;“A Global Marketplace of Geopolitical Analysis.” Over the past ten months Wikistrat has grown to now include some of the most tuned-in group of experts and analysts ever assembled, all for the purpose of providing a real time analysis tool. Recently the CEO of Wikistrat, Joe Zamel wrote a post on Dr. Thomas PM Barnett's Blog explaining how Dr. Barnett was a major influence in founding this team. He went on to urge readers to view the series of briefs that explain the "Five Strategic Flows" that will drive the advance of globalization and connectivity into the future. As a way of sharing these briefs in full, I have embed them below for your viewing. It takes about an hour to watch all six briefs; them you are encouraged to form your own analysis of Barnett's vision of the future. You may not agree with his vision, but it will fill your mind with nuggets of pure information to chew upon as you decide if you are going to be a passenger, or step forward to be involved in building a future worthy of your children and grandchildren. Now for Dr. Barnett.

Wikistrat's "The World According to Tom Barnett" (Introduction, and the Pentagon's New Map) Pt 1

Wikistrat's "The World According to Tom Barnett" (Flow of People) Pt 2

Wikistrat's "The World According to Tom Barnett" (Flow of Money)  Pt 3

Wikistrat's "The World According to Tom Barnett" (Flow of Energy) Pt 4

Wikistrat's "The World According to Tom Barnett" (Flow of Food) Pt 5

Wikistrat's "The World According to Tom Barnett" (Flow of Security) Pt 6

Finally, for those who have not seen Dr. Barnett's explanation for how Wikistrat came about.

"My Best Explanation of Wikistrat Yet."

The coming war on obesity and consumption

Obesity in America

Obesity in world

Daily food consumption

This week, Thomas Barnett penned a column for the World Politics Review that predicted the coming clash over food, as the Western style diet comes under fire for obesity and it's byproduct of major health issues becomes the target of both the nanny state, and nations where food is a matter of survival. Barnett called it this way.

The real clash of civilizations in the 21st century will be not over religion, but over food. As the emerging East and surging South achieve appreciable amounts of disposable income, they're increasingly taking on a Western-style diet. This bodes poorly for the world on multiple levels, with the most-alarmist Cassandras warning about imminent resource wars. But the more immediate and realistic concern is the resulting health costs, which will inevitably trigger a rule-set clash between nanny-state types hell-bent on "reining in" a number of globalized industries -- agriculture, food and beverages, restaurants, health care and pharmaceuticals -- and those preferring a more free-market/libertarian stance.

This clash won't necessarily pit East versus West or North versus South, or even democracies versus authoritarian regimes. The core of this struggle will be about sustainability versus individual freedom of choice, because, as a recent Financial Times editorial put it, "Individuals have a right to indulge in excesses, but they also have responsibility for costs."

Read more:
The New Rules: Time to Worry About Over-Eating, not Over-Population

Barnett penned his column, just a few hours before Denmark became the first country in the world to pass what has been dubbed the "Fat Tax" to combat the growing obesity in Denmark, as they confront rising health care costs in a country with state provided cradle to the grave health care costs are predicted to rise faster than the kilos on millions of personal scales.

Denmark on Saturday became the first country in the world to impose a fat tax after a week in which consumers hoarded butter, pizza, meat and milk to avoid the immediate effects.

"We have had to stock up with tonnes of butter and margarine in order to be able to supply outlets," Soeren Joergensen of Arla Distribution told AFP.

The new tax, designed by Denmark’s outgoing government as a health issue to limit the population’s intake of fatty foods, will add 16 kroner ($2.87, 2.15 euros) per kilo (2.2 pounds) of saturated fats in a product.

Read more:
Denmark levies worlds first fat tax

It now appears other nations with state sponsored healthcare programs are considering similar taxes. Can the US be far behind? Personally, in an age where we all end up sharing the cost of programs like Medicare, and in in the future, some form a national health care system, as well as swelling personal health insurance rates, taxes on things that contribute to obesity and in turn health issues might make sense. The common sense solution would be to charge obese people more, but that would be considered discrimenatory so we all get to pay. The bigger question as raised by Thomas Barnett is how to feed a swelling population of 7 billion and growing without being labeled a pariah for consuming geometrically more than the majority of the planet.

Water, So little to go around.

Picture of Earth showing if all Earth's water (liquid, ice, freshwater, saline) was put into a sphere it would be about 860 miles (about 1,385 kilometers) in diameter. Diameter would be about the distance from Salt Lake City, Utah to Topeka, Kansas, USA.

Credit: Illustration by Jack Cook, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution; USGS

This past week saw much of the United States sweltering under the doldrums of mid-summer, when extreme humidity and high temperatures married to launch a thousand news clips, as sweating correspondences sought out comments from the uncomfortable so their anchors could drive the global warming narrative. Little was noted that the West Coast was cool and in Southern California, June Glum was sticking around to keep the sun away until late morning in most areas near the coast. I came across this article in the Atlantic Magazine by Rebecca J. Rosen that reminds us how an invention by a gent named Willis Carrier, helped shape Modern America.

Before air conditioning, in a bygone and surely less comfortable era, people employed all sorts of strategies for keeping cool in the heat. Houses were designed with airflow in mind -- more windows, higher ceilings. A style once prevalent in the American south, the dogtrot house, was really two smaller cabins -- one for cooking and the other for living -- connected under one roof with an open-air corridor between them. In addition, many homes had porches where families could spend a hot day, and also sleeping porches with beds where they could ride out a hot night. Many home designs took passive solar design principles into account, even if they didn't name them as such.

Ms. Rosen sketches out the essential role that air conditioning has played in changing our lives for the better.

Read more
Keeping it Cool: How the air conditioner made Modern America

Air conditioning shaped our world, but one element remains at the root of life and next to planting one's self under the blowing vent of one Mr. Carrier's inventions, a glass of cool water, or any beverage that has water as the prime ingredient, will cool you down and keep you alive. Water, a resource that's supply has not grown to keep pace with the population is said to becoming more valuable than oil in the coming decades.

Two articles in Yale Global Online look at how water is challenging rising Asian powers where a scarcity of water threatens the present and the future.

Before heavy June rains ended one of the most severe droughts in the Yangtze River Basin in 60 years, farmers in Hubei Province warned of rice shortages because of late planting. Downriver, coal-fired power plants cut back electrical generation because coal-loaded barges couldn’t navigate the low waters. The Yangtze’s shallow depth and the utility industry’s weakened power output reflect both this spring’s unusual conditions and the growing resource confrontation China faces with water, energy and food.

Read more:
Water Challenges Asia Powers.

Drawing water from an Indian well.

China is not the only country facing this challenge. India is facing an even more desperate crisis.

By July this year, the monsoon has established itself vigorously over much of the subcontinent. The anxieties of the long, intense summer months, when nations hold their collective breath in anticipation of the cooling, life-giving rain, have receded. But the region’s1.6 billion people know that next summer, the worries will return.

Water is ultimately a finite resource. With all finite resources, there is a continuous need for sustainable and equitable management, by capping demand, improving efficiencies in supply and developing substitutes. This exercise is complicated by the sociocultural beliefs, values and affinities around this

Read more:
Water Challenges Part II

To help understand, the situation, here are two links that will explain the details.
Where in the Earth is the Water

The World's Water

800- million and Falling

Number of people living on $1 a day

Global Poverty Rate

Four years ago this past May, Paul Collier's book The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries are Failing and What Can Be Done About It told of the rapid fall of poverty rates that affected about 80% of the world's population. He noted that there were about one billion people who were still living on less than $1.00 per day and all means to lower that number was defying all traditional means. He had held out little hope for change if the them current handout schemes continued.

Earlier this month, an article posted at Yale Global Online reported something that garnered almost no fan-fare, that the number of desperately poor, had not just slipped below one billion, but was dropping by 70 million a year, according to the authors, Laurence Chandy and Geoffrey Gertz. Their data flies off the pages as evidence that the world is moving towards a middleclass majority.

It is customary to bemoan the intractability of global poverty and the lack of progress against the Millennium Development Goals. But the stunning fact is that, gone unnoticed, the goal to halve global poverty was probably reached three years ago.

We are in the midst of the fastest period of poverty reduction the world has ever seen. The global poverty rate, which stood at 25 percent in 2005, is ticking downwards at one to two percentage points a year, lifting around 70 million people – the population of Turkey or Thailand – out of destitution annually. Advances in human progress on such a scale are unprecedented, yet remain almost universally unacknowledged.

This should be heartening to every living soul. What is means besides, providing new markets for developed and the fast developing countries but less conflict as noted in this observation by the authors as to the possible causes and effects.

How and why sustained high economic growth in developing countries took hold are questions likely to be debated by economic historians for many decades. Already one can point to a number of probable sources emerging or accelerating around the turn of the century: an investment boom triggered by rising commodity prices; high growth spillovers originating from large open emerging economies that utilize cross-border supply chains; diversification into novel export markets from cut flowers to call centers; spread of new technologies, in particular rapid adoption of cell phones; increased public and private investment in infrastructure; the cessation of a number of conflicts and improved political stability; and the abandonment of inferior growth strategies such as import substitution for a focus on macroeconomic health and improved competitiveness.

Read more, and the linked report below:
With Little Notice, Globalization Reduced Poverty

Poverty in Numbers:


This information is something that grand strategist and advocate of the American model of liberal free trade Thomas PM Barnett, has written and spoken about for almost a decade. He defines this moment in history as:

•Globalization IV (2001-present), is defined by the enormous structural changes wrought by the simultaneous rise of numerous great powers and the emergence of a global middle class.

Some used to find his optimistic views hard to swallow, the proof is coming in spades to show that the world is moving towards being mostly middleclass. The truth is that he has been spot-on in defining the age. It is high time that Americans get on board the boat and discover that we have to embrace those new markets and go forth like our ancestors did when the built this grand experiment that has primed the very pump leading to the world being better off than any time in history. Barnett, writes this week about what he called a must read article in the Wall Street Journal that explains how the west mis-understands the economic growth in China. Barnett excepts the best nuggets of the article and add a rich sauce to enhance the author Liu Junning's words.

Read his analysis:
What is eternal and Ephemeral about China and this modern world system we call globalization

Number of US Jobs from Exports. Map from East-West Center

Now all this might make Americans say okay, our own country is hurting, what is Globalization and free trade doing for us? This next article also from Yale Global Online, will illustrate how connected America's economy has become with Asia.

“Jobs” is now a fraught four-letter word for America. With unemployment in the United States hovering around 9 percent, the word resonates for millions of struggling individuals and families, not to mention politicians and policymakers. And no other geographical region in the world today receives more attention in that context than Asia. “Jobs lost to Asia” is a refrain of politicians and media, yet the facts tell a different story. Trade and investment with Asia creates jobs in the US.

Student Economic Impact on US. from East-West Center

In a detail rich article the author Satu Limaye relates how job growth created by Asian trade has risen to 850,000 jobs in the United States. He points out that Japanese foreign direct investment in the U.S. account for 665,000 jobs. One of the proposals Thomas Barnett has made is an increase in Chinese direct investment in American businesses to stimulate job growth, instead of buying Treasury bonds. The article goes on to note the jobs and money generated by everything from students to tourism and immigration where the contribution of the 10 million foreign born Asians are contributing to the economy, culture and politics.

Read more:
Asia Matters For America

Global Cities: The Future Centers of Power

Beijing skyline

Mubai skyline

Urbanization

The past two week has seen an ongoing competition sponsored by Wikistrat and judged by their chief analysis Thomas PM Barnett. Barnett provided his readers with an update on the week two results in a post this week. He begins by explaining how it is run and his responsibility.

As head judge of Wikistrat’s International Grand Strategy Competition, I wanted to update everybody on what’s emerged across the second week of the contest. As you may already know, the competition brings together approximately 30 teams comprised of PhD and masters students from elite international schools and world-renowned think tanks. Those teams, evenly distributed over a dozen or so countries (so as to encourage intra-country as well as inter-country competition), were challenged in Week 2 to come up with national and regional trajectories in relation to their country-team assignments (Brazil, China, EU, India, Iran, Israel, Japan, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, South Africa, Turkey & US).

As head judge, I assign points to teams based on their activity throughout the week. In this second week, each team generated those two trajectories to the tune of about 10,000 words each, or close to 300,000 words across all the teams. Naturally, a ton of interesting nuggets emerged, so here’s my hit list of provocative ideas.

Those nuggets number twelve theories or visions of the future and range from seeing the U.S. re-focus on the Western Hemisphere, and the EU encouraging immigration from fellow Roman Catholic states/regions, to India and China's growing influence. One topic heading caught my eye because I had just been reading another blog that had a great post that supported the contention that:

4) The future is all about who’s got the most global cities (EU2/Oxford)

Barnett has this to add about this opinion from the Oxford team.

I’m a big believer in this, because if you add up the coastal megacities of the world, you’ve got half the planet’s population and the vast majority of its connectivity and traffic. Get the coastal megacities wired up right, and globalization can’t fail. Team Oxford brought this out in their critique of Europe’s lack of global cities, saying that, besides London, none of the capitals really qualify on the scale of such behemoths as New York, Los Angeles, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Mumbai, Istanbul, etc. EU2’s point: make the investment if you want to stay relevant in the rule setting.

Read more:
Grand Strategic Competition Update (Week 2)

Shanghai skyline

The support for the comments about global cities is found in this post from The Enterprise Resilience Management Blog where Steve DeAngelis writes this about emerging market consumers and where they will live.

In several past posts, I've made the assertion that economic progress generally precedes political transformation. The logic for that is fairly straight forward. When a population moves out of poverty and into the middle class (i.e., its members find themselves with discretionary spending money), their attention naturally turns to politics. Why? The reasons are many. To name a few: they don't want their hard-earned cash taxed too heavily; they want freedom of movement and expression; and they expect the government to provide them with services that improve their quality of life. Because economic progress has such a dramatic impact on politics, both political and economic analysts are carefully watching the emergence of the new global upper and middle classes. Fareed Zakaria told Nora Dunne, "The growth in emerging markets is not just at the economic level. It's also happening in terms of psychology. Chinese, Indians, and Koreans are feeling a much greater sense of political confidence and assertiveness. You see this on the world stage everywhere."

Zakaria's claim that economic progress is leading to political transformation "everywhere" may sound like hyperbole, but it is not far from the mark. There are only a few dark corners of the world where globalization has yet to shine its light. Most new members joining the global upper and middle classes will come from urban settings. Analysts from McKinsey & Company claim, "Over the next 15 years, 600 cities will account for more than 60 percent of global GDP growth."

The next sentence in the article has a link to interactive map that allows the viewer to see the pattern of growth. DeAngelis quotes from an article published by McKinsely.

"More than 20 of the world's top 50 cities ranked by GDP will be located in Asia by the year 2025, up from 8 in 2007. During that same time period, our research suggests, more than half of Europe's top 50 cities will drop off the list, as will 3 in North America. In this new landscape of urban economic power, Shanghai and Beijing will outrank Los Angeles and London, while Mumbai and Doha will surpass Munich and Denver. The implications—for companies' growth priorities, countries' economic relationships, and the world's sustainability strategy—are profound." ["Urban economic clout moves east," by Richard Dobbs, Jaana Remes, and Sven Smit, McKinsely Quarterly.

Read more
Emerging Market Consumers, Part 1

Here is the link to the McKinsey Quarterly site and the interactive map that is an excellent source to illustrate the effective spread of the middle class around the globe. Click on the map link and see the world of the future open to explore with the click of your mouse.
Cities: The Next Frontier for Global Growth

An Unsettled Christmas Week

Global Travel Time map

On the weekend before Christmas and as the first decade of the 21st century comes to an end, the world finds itself bracing for change that is described in a post at Yale Global Online. Jeffrey E. Garten, the Juan Trippe professor of international trade and finance at the Yale School of Management writes this about the crumbling of the current global economic order and what changes need to be confronted and embraced to avoid the world spinning backwards as self centered countries resist the changes wrought by their own miss-managed policies.

As the first decade of the 21st century comes to a close, leaving the steady growth of last century's second half a distant memory, what does the future hold for the global economy? For the next several years, we can expect exceptional turbulence as the waning days of the global economic order we have known plays out chaotically, possibly destructively. For the longer term, say, 10 years from now, a more promising picture awaits as a new set of international economic arrangements gains support from governments, business and civil society, and as a wave of exceptional innovation bears fruit. The transition will be a treacherous ride that no government would rationally choose to take. Yet the die seems cast.

Garten goes on to point out that the United States is no longer in position to shoulder all the burdens of maintaining global order.

The old order had to die also because the United States – its creator, rule enforcer, market of last resort and chief cheerleader, now racked by deficits, debts, and a polarized and inward-looking political system – can no longer shoulder the burden of these roles. No one country is remotely capable of replacing America, and effective collective leadership is nowhere in sight.

Garten hold out hope that new leadership in the next decade will appear with visionary ideas to engage the world in the next stage of global governance, not global government.

Some hope for optimism lays in the possibility that by the end of this decade, many domestic hurdles, such as US fiscal problems and European debt pressures, will be on a sounder trajectory. Also, by then, a new generation of leadership could emerge, weary of failed policies of the previous 10 years and much wiser for it. These men and women are likely to be willing to move ahead with the many new ideas that are sure to evolve during a period of chaos and instability.

....Never in world history has there been such capacity to link new ideas, great talent and huge pools of money in support of progress. Nor should we forget that some of the trends now emerging, such as the hyper-urbanization of the planet, could produce unprecedented innovations in energy, transport, health care and more as the creativity produced by urban clusters is unleashed....

Read the whole post.
Brace for Change as the Global Economic Order Crumbles

A worker hoists an American flag alongside a Chinese flag in Tiananmen Square

As one ponders the changes noted above, we turn to a possible remedy for lessening the tensions brought by trying to maintain global order and overcome the ghosts of Cold War images that still haunt and inhabit the minds of many within the borders of old adversaries.

Thomas PM Barnett, author and geostrategist, recently returned from spending two weeks in China where he and his counterparts discussed a proposal for what is described as a Sino-American grand strategy "term sheet" that proposes an executive agreement between the United States and China for peaceful co-existence and an economically balanced relationship. The plan, linked below, is open for discussion now that it had become public. How it is received will be the fodder of debate within the confines of both the halls of Congress, the White House and across the charged airways of American broadcasters as well as every balanced and unbalanced blogosphere voice all rising in a crescendo of background noise that may threaten the very prospect of wise debate. I for one see  the merit of this proposal in removing the burrs of inter-continental security concerns as well as more importantly, improving economic inter-dependency which is what much of the lead post by Jeffery Garten is all about. Grab a cup of coffee, and read over the proposal below. Don't toss the whole idea away when reaching parts that might stick in your craw. Let it sit a while and ponder it long and hard before making up your mind.

Read the whole plan.
Final Version of the Sino-American Grand Strategy Terms

U.S. Army troops celebrate Christmas during Korean War

There is one major caveat to this plan that remains poised to send the best laid plans for cooperation crashing to the ground. That comes as the world hold its breath as the two Korea's step to the brink of war this weekend. South Korea, under domestic pressure to stand up to North Korea is going ahead with plans for live fire drills. As fellow blogger extraordinaire Galhran points out, cancellation is not an option. The culture of face will not allow the President of South Korea to back down in the face of North Korean threats. So, here is what might happen as told by Galhran.

The weather is improving over South Korea, and the live fire drills are likely to take place today. A few random thoughts before the day unfolds.

South Korea will conduct the live fire drills, cancellation isn't an option. This is a cultural issue as much as anything, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak cannot back down to North Korean threats or intimidation or he will be forced to resign in disgrace.

North Korea will return fire. The North has made every single warning that is consistent with the warnings made prior to the last outbreak of combat, including phone calls with personal warnings (very rare). Expect return fire to YeonpyeongGyeonggi Province. If you recall, that is where intelligence suggested the next attack would come from, and if I was in Vegas I would bet that is where KPA Unit 2670 is located.

Galhran goes on to ponder the South Korean response. However, buried within one of  the links, is this troubling possibility.

Military officials say North Korea’s long-range guns could launch up to 17,000 shells at the greater Seoul area in an hour. If this were to happen, they say some 3.25 million civilians and soldiers could be killed or wounded.

The military, however, does not believe this many casualties would result. This is because the 3.25 million number is based on two unrealistic premises: that South Korea and the United States could not detect signs of an impending North Korean long-range artillery attack, and that North Korea’s long-range guns would continue to fire for an hour without taking any losses.

A military source said, “Of the 170 rounds fired at Yeonpyeong Island, about 90 landed in the sea, and of the 80 rounds that hit Yeonpyeong Island, 20 were duds, so of the 170 rounds fired, only about 60 were effective.”

Well do the math, that means if only 35% of the shells were effective, it would then lower the possible South Korean losses to only 1.13 million dead and wounded. Even those kind of causalities could push South Korea to launch an all out response. Where that would lead, is for only time to tell. One thing would be obvious. Any accord such as linked above, would be forever gone, as the hawks on both sides circle the wagons and begin the blame game. So folks as the week dedicated to peace and brotherhood toward mankind opens; the world wonders and waits with all eyes pointed to what was know as the Hermit Kingdom, now divided these past 60 years.

Read more:
Guns of Christmas

China on My Mind

China has and will always be on my mind, and since I met my wife, in my heart. That said, I am not an apologist for their current or past system of government and in fact find it counter to what I believe in; and in my youth fought mortally against. This week a few of the blogs I follow have had an exceptionally rich number of posts, seeking to counsel, warn, and decipher our current and future relations with the mystical dragon that is economically breathing down our necks as it approaches our status as the worlds strongest economy from behind.

Thomas Barnett has been in the forefront of counseling that we need to manage China's rise much like Great Britain shepherded the rise of the United States as a great power in the early 20th century. Barnett has written over 200 posts this year that are tagged about China. This week was no exception and this quartet of posts lays out more sensible ideas for how we should respond to what in reality is the return of China to the world stage as a great power, a position she held for most of her 5000 year history.

First is this piece with tips about how to blunt and put the brakes on demonizing China here at home.
Trying to Unwind this Demonization Trend

Tom follows that post with this post and link to his World Politics Review column, with the viral video of the now famous Chinese Professor.
Using China to Scare Ourselves Straight

Then this about how demographics are going to change  the world, once again!
Globalization's Massive Demographic Bet

Tom then looks at the FDI or Foreign Direct Investments over the past century.

Fascinating really: you can see the decline of the British empire, then the US stepping in to fund so much of the world post-WWII, and then our own progressive decline as the rest of the West recovered, then Japan rose (and fell), and now China rises. Naturally, some will wish to make the comparison of the decline of the US "empire" with that of the Brits', but our system was never set up to maintain dominance. It was set up to encourage the rise of others peacefully, which it's done (65 years of no great power war and counting, the biggest increase in human wealth/income ever seen, billions avoid poverty). The world simply couldn't handle the rise of great powers--until we came along and forced a system that could. It is, without doubt, the greatest accomplishment of any great power in human history.

Read more:
Strange Days

On the heels of this, comes a second broadside of common-sense fired directly at the leadership in Washington. Here is just of taste of what is coming.

Our definition of a "responsible stakeholder" is "do everything the way I want it and THEN you can be my friend!" That's not how you treat an ally; that's how you treat a dog. If we have FDR today, he'd deal and he'd deal with confidence. That guy believed in his system, and had no fears dealing with authoritarian regimes. But we don't have any FDRs today. Reagan and Clinton were the last, it seems: guys who knew how to cut deals, compromise, move the ball--with confidence in their country and its future. Now we have such little people with little minds (yeah, Bloomberg said it and I repeat it!). We bluster and we strut and we're being ignored more and more--a trend I trace back to the beginning of W's 2nd term (Katrina proves we can't nation-build abroad or at home).

UPDATE: STRANGE DAYS (UPDATE)

Coming on the heels of Barnett's posts comes this brief post by Robert Farley at Information Dissemination who discusses what he correctly labels a fractured Chinese foreign policy.

China is full of many people who want many different things. Like the U.S. national security apparatus, the Chinese government harbors a plethora of different foreign-policy perspectives, some focused on trade, others on power, and still others guided by domestic political concerns. Moreover, the Chinese government is no longer the only actor of consequence in China. Chinese public opinion increasingly constrains policymakers, and can even force them into action they don't want to take. Like all states, China is fractured. Recognizing its fractured nature is the key to developing an effective U.S. policy toward China's rise.

Don't miss the links to Robert's column at WPR, and the very interesting Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI report about China.

Read More.
Fractured China

Now where is this all going? Most might think that Robert and Tom's posts are preaching to the choir of their readers and will have little impact on those counting on tapping into the national malaise of anger and self doubt that in part came from our own drunken binge on the scent of cheap money and easy credit terms along with feeding at the trough of feeling our oats for the past half century.

We need a wake up call, but more importantly we need leadership that is visionary in the vein of a Roosevelt or a Lincoln whom front loaded the next quarter century of economic growth for America while in the depths of  war. Lincoln in his five important bills during the 33rd Congress, and Roosevelt in holding Churchill's feet to the fire about shedding their colonies after the war and then taking the leadership role in conducting the war at Tehran in 1943. We continue to suffer from mediocrity and men blinded by hubris and measures of implanted self-destructive genes.

Recently I have been reading two books as mentioned in a previous post . The thread of what would happen when we insist on a hasty and blind charge towards one man one vote democracy in countries with massive iniquities. Think what would happen in China if the people all could have an equal say in their policy while most of the country is barely out of grinding poverty. They would be mailable to someone who could seize the moment and their new found nationalism in what is dubbed by the Chinese leaders as Netizens who by far display extreme nationalist tendencies that mirror the worst of mid-20th century Germany and Japan. We only have to look south to view Venezuela and how Hugo Chavez has harness the poor to vote him president for life and start down the road of creating an almost fascist state, ditto Bolivia and over the horizon, watch for Ortega in Nicaragua. Honduras just stopped short of allowing their president Zavala to proceed down that path.

If we play our diplomatic cards right we can see a peaceful rise of China that operates in a capitalist system with Chinese characters and is a partner in developing and spreading the system of free market and capitalism that sprang from the fountain of hope and opportunity called the United States.

Finally, to share a small story about China. My mother and father in-law lived through the worst of the Cultural Revolution and being professors of foreign languages were sent out to the fields as punishment and re-education. They don't speak of it and I only recently learned how badly my father-in-law's health was broken during that time. Quietly as the worst passed, they raised their two daughters to learn foreign languages and as soon as possible, encouraged them to leave, one to Germany and the other to America. Today, they live the quiet lives of the retired, but knowing what they must have endured and then finding a way to re-purpose themselves and go on and remain proud of their nation for it's long endurance and heritage gives me pause to reflect on their strength of character. And also, their wisdom to not want to see their daughters and grandchildren fall victim to the same spasms of what happens when the citizens run amok.

When Random Musings Start to Converge

Between classes and the ever present drive to understand our world and in my own small way pass something of value along to the next generation, I find myself wedging these next pursuits like bookmarks in the journal of my life. To me it is vital to teach or encourage reflection about history, responsibility, and the essence of what brought us to this point, and hopefully what will lead the next generations to choose the right course for a future worth living.

That is why during my readings this week I am posting links to things that are both troubling and insightful as a way of prompting some sliver of cognition and thought about what we have seemed to have wrought in the first decade of the 21st century if we stay the course of self-indulgence and overt entitlement without taking personal responsibility.

Amid this weeks blog readings, I am deep into reading two books that on surface seem disconnected. But upon deeper reading begin to reveal some insight into democracy and the rule of law and how they work in relation to reality. Or better said. Be sure of what you might get, when you wish for it with all your might.

First, thought let's reflect on the state of America and what we seem to have become in the first decade of the new century. blog friend Robert Patterson  wrote this post about the state of leadership and what he notes is the ruling class of the United States. Rob, begins by stating that America is ruled by an aristocracy, only to change his opinion when another blog friend Mark of Zenpundit pointed out the following and led Rob to declare.

I prefer Mark's term "Oligarchy" on reflection - An Aristocracy goes to war with its people - Has a shared sense of community and knows it has Obligations - These people have none of this. They care ONLY for their own interest.

Rob goes on to reflect the following and backs up his observation with data from the link below from Nick Kristoff in the NYT.

So what about the Dream? This situation is OK I suspect for many Americans so long as they believe that they could rise too. But is this possible for many people? It is still for a few - start Google or eBay and you are in. But with the middle class being impoverished cut off and excluded by cost from the filter schools - with the working class being slaves - I see social mobility being less. I suspect that the Dream is no more than a Lottery idea now. Yes it happens but the odds are very very very small.

Our Bannana Republic

I usually find Kristoff a bit Pollyanna in his observations at times, but let us look further at the evidence he cites and let you the reader make your own interpretation of the facts.

Read more:
The United State of Inequality

Read Rob's reflections.
Is America Ruled by an Aristocracy Now? Of course it is!

And since I am asking you to dwell on the growing inequality of life in the United States. Let's pause to reflect on this article about how 99% of the population doesn't know or particularly care about the 1% who are fighting our wars.

AT FORT CAMPBELL, KY. Emily Franks was playing with her toddler when a soldier called from Afghanistan with devastating news.

A massive roadside bombing had killed five soldiers from her husband's 120-man infantry company. The soldier was calling Franks, who was at the center of a wives' support network, in violation of a military-imposed communications blackout on the unit.

Using an Afghan cellphone, he told Franks that her husband was safe, but that the company commander was probably dead.

Franks's cellphone beeped. Kitty Hinds, the company commander's wife, was calling.

"I gotta go," Franks told the soldier.

She was sure that Hinds was going to tell her that her husband had been killed. Hinds, however, was oblivious to the events 7,000 miles away in Afghanistan. It was a perfect afternoon and she was driving her three boys home from baseball camp.

Franks struggled to mask the dread in her voice. Her pulse raced as she said goodbye. "It was horrid," she recalled. "Absolutely horrid."

Reading this brought to mind other wars, where the notification of a loss was presented in a less personal way. One women during the early days of the Vietnam War stepped forward to try and lessen the blow of such a loss Julia Compton Moore wife of then Lt. Col Hal Moore, began to to intercept the notifications from the taxi drivers and make the notification herself. Things have not changed, for most Americans the sacrifice is off their radar unless it touches their family.

Read the whole article
Facebook brings the Afghan war to Fort Campbell

What do these two posts have in common? Look at Mark's definition of an "Oligarchy", and then think that we even leave it to the military to raise money for additional help for the wounded. Soldier's Angels. Where is the richest 1%? Certainly not stepping up to the plate in a show of personal responsibility or leadership that would let them reclaim the title of  an "Aristocracy" that for most of our history has been open from the bottom just enough to fuel the dreams of millions.

  Turning back to to books that I am currently reading. Both came by way of recommendations. Blog friend Critt Jarvis asked me to look at The Good Coup: The Overthrow of Manuel Zelaya In Honduras. The book is a collection of articles by Marco Caceres Di Inrio that chronicles the removal of Zelaya as the President of Honduras on the eve of his trying to change the constitution from a single term for president to one that allowed a person to run for the office of presidency as many times as they wanted. Now on the surface of wanting democracy for everyone, this seems noble. But, what happens when that path leads to just another form of dictatorship, where you end up with a presidente for life, in the vein of Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador, or Zimbabwe or a dozen other quasi-democracy's where the rule is dictatorship by the 51%.

I have not finished the book, but the main idea is that the country suffered from poor governance which leads to corruption and poverty, leaving the majority of the people feeling they have no voice. President Zelaya in trying to change the constitution to allow for his continued re-election, led those who wanted to preserve democracy, to remove him from office. The silver lining of this whole event is that the plight of the vast majority of Hondurans who are poor and powerless is getting the attention of all Hondurans who now have a chance to resolve the inequities.Honduras Rising.


The second book I am reading moves the view 8,369 miles to the northwest and the view from Beijing. Tom Barnett first called my attention to a book by John Milligan-Whyte and Dai Min. Curious to read a different approach of how to build an consensus of success between the United States and China, I ordered a copy and have just begun to delve into their Sino-inspired suggestions.

Right away, the first impression landed on the contrast of China's "Permission Society," "Consensus Democracy," and a "Pre-Rule of Law Society," and America's "Rights Society," Majority Rule Democracy," and the "Rule of Law" society. They argue that in our haste to impose a majority rule democracy on China, that we may not like the results of an empowered mass of people filled with  nationalist pride that has little experience with anything but 50 centuries of central authority and direction. Do we really want that? Whyte and Min argue that China would be more nationalistic and swayed to anti-American parties than a stable one-party state, that governs from a pragmatic view. I will be reflecting more on this book as I progress through it. Their main thesis is that for either country to survive and more importantly succeed, we need to forge a strategy that allows both countries to benefit and succeed in the 21st century. They are convinced like our own first decades as a nation, "that in time, democracy with Chinese characteristics will emerge." Their views are a bit from the other side and somewhat opposite those of the average American, but well worth the read to gain insight and build bridges to the future.

Read Tom's summary
Another Mention in Peoples Daily

Well that is enough reading and pondering for a while. We just had an election that allowed the American people to voice their displeasure with the direction of the country. The next two years will either find our bearings and a way out of the shoals we find ourselves in, or we will vote for another major course correction.