Global Cities: The Future Centers of Power

Beijing skyline

Mubai skyline

Urbanization

The past two week has seen an ongoing competition sponsored by Wikistrat and judged by their chief analysis Thomas PM Barnett. Barnett provided his readers with an update on the week two results in a post this week. He begins by explaining how it is run and his responsibility.

As head judge of Wikistrat’s International Grand Strategy Competition, I wanted to update everybody on what’s emerged across the second week of the contest. As you may already know, the competition brings together approximately 30 teams comprised of PhD and masters students from elite international schools and world-renowned think tanks. Those teams, evenly distributed over a dozen or so countries (so as to encourage intra-country as well as inter-country competition), were challenged in Week 2 to come up with national and regional trajectories in relation to their country-team assignments (Brazil, China, EU, India, Iran, Israel, Japan, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, South Africa, Turkey & US).

As head judge, I assign points to teams based on their activity throughout the week. In this second week, each team generated those two trajectories to the tune of about 10,000 words each, or close to 300,000 words across all the teams. Naturally, a ton of interesting nuggets emerged, so here’s my hit list of provocative ideas.

Those nuggets number twelve theories or visions of the future and range from seeing the U.S. re-focus on the Western Hemisphere, and the EU encouraging immigration from fellow Roman Catholic states/regions, to India and China's growing influence. One topic heading caught my eye because I had just been reading another blog that had a great post that supported the contention that:

4) The future is all about who’s got the most global cities (EU2/Oxford)

Barnett has this to add about this opinion from the Oxford team.

I’m a big believer in this, because if you add up the coastal megacities of the world, you’ve got half the planet’s population and the vast majority of its connectivity and traffic. Get the coastal megacities wired up right, and globalization can’t fail. Team Oxford brought this out in their critique of Europe’s lack of global cities, saying that, besides London, none of the capitals really qualify on the scale of such behemoths as New York, Los Angeles, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Mumbai, Istanbul, etc. EU2’s point: make the investment if you want to stay relevant in the rule setting.

Read more:
Grand Strategic Competition Update (Week 2)

Shanghai skyline

The support for the comments about global cities is found in this post from The Enterprise Resilience Management Blog where Steve DeAngelis writes this about emerging market consumers and where they will live.

In several past posts, I've made the assertion that economic progress generally precedes political transformation. The logic for that is fairly straight forward. When a population moves out of poverty and into the middle class (i.e., its members find themselves with discretionary spending money), their attention naturally turns to politics. Why? The reasons are many. To name a few: they don't want their hard-earned cash taxed too heavily; they want freedom of movement and expression; and they expect the government to provide them with services that improve their quality of life. Because economic progress has such a dramatic impact on politics, both political and economic analysts are carefully watching the emergence of the new global upper and middle classes. Fareed Zakaria told Nora Dunne, "The growth in emerging markets is not just at the economic level. It's also happening in terms of psychology. Chinese, Indians, and Koreans are feeling a much greater sense of political confidence and assertiveness. You see this on the world stage everywhere."

Zakaria's claim that economic progress is leading to political transformation "everywhere" may sound like hyperbole, but it is not far from the mark. There are only a few dark corners of the world where globalization has yet to shine its light. Most new members joining the global upper and middle classes will come from urban settings. Analysts from McKinsey & Company claim, "Over the next 15 years, 600 cities will account for more than 60 percent of global GDP growth."

The next sentence in the article has a link to interactive map that allows the viewer to see the pattern of growth. DeAngelis quotes from an article published by McKinsely.

"More than 20 of the world's top 50 cities ranked by GDP will be located in Asia by the year 2025, up from 8 in 2007. During that same time period, our research suggests, more than half of Europe's top 50 cities will drop off the list, as will 3 in North America. In this new landscape of urban economic power, Shanghai and Beijing will outrank Los Angeles and London, while Mumbai and Doha will surpass Munich and Denver. The implications—for companies' growth priorities, countries' economic relationships, and the world's sustainability strategy—are profound." ["Urban economic clout moves east," by Richard Dobbs, Jaana Remes, and Sven Smit, McKinsely Quarterly.

Read more
Emerging Market Consumers, Part 1

Here is the link to the McKinsey Quarterly site and the interactive map that is an excellent source to illustrate the effective spread of the middle class around the globe. Click on the map link and see the world of the future open to explore with the click of your mouse.
Cities: The Next Frontier for Global Growth

May Day: Time to Ponder the Future

May Pole, Germany

Future cities

The First of May for most people today, is associated with socialist movements. But in this context I will adhere to the traditional meaning when May Day marks the end of the un-farmable half of the year in the Northern hemisphere and ushers in a tangible Spring.

In keeping with that theme, I thought it would be good to ponder the future. By the end of this year 2011, there will be 7 billion of us residing on this rock we call Earth. That is an increase of 5.5 billion in my lifetime. To illustrate what a world with 7 billion would be like, take a few minutes to check out this link.
7 Billion: National Geography Magazine 

Now that you have an idea of how many humans will as the video notes, would if standing shoulder to shoulder, fit in the city limits of Los Angeles proving that balance, not space will be the challenge of future generations.

This century has been heralded by some as being the Pacific century when Asia rules the world. Before you get too complacent with that concept, take the time to read this next post from Thomas Barnett who comments on whetherAsia will stall or fulfill that dream.

Next comes two fascinating posts from Tom Barnett's colleague Steve DeAngelis of Enterra Solutions. In a two part post entitled "Life a Hundred Years from Now" DeAngelis chronicles predictions from noted futurists about what life would be like in 2111. Steve begins.

Earlier this year I posted a few blogs dealing with short-term predictions about the future. A few daring souls have taken the long view and predicted what life might look like some hundred years from now. The thing that always strikes me about early science fiction movies that depict the future is that completely missed miniaturization except perhaps for "ray guns." So I'm not too sanguine about anybody's ability to predict things very far into the future.

This first part makes some startling predictions about space travel and exploration and touches on the changes in the nuclear family and other social issues.

Read more:
Life a Hundred Years from Now: Part 1

Now for part two and what I found was the real meat of predictions. As you read the post and feel a level of scepticism creeping in, remember to stop and think what someone your age and living at the turn of  the 20th century would feel if told of the all the advances in technology and medicine we enjoy today. Only the most esoteric dreamers would entertain such thoughts. Steve starts by quoting from Michio Kaku, author of Physics of the Future.

"If someone from 2100 could visit us now, how would we view them? Probably like the gods of mythology. They would command everything around them by wishing for it. They would have perfect and ageless bodies. And they would ride across the universe in magical chariots. In the past, we feared the gods of mythology. In the next 100 years, we will become them. Based on interviews with 300 of the world's top scientists, I've put together some predictions for what that world, 100 years in the future, will look like. This is not a work of science fiction, since prototypes of these inventions already exist, and all of them obey the laws of physics."

The post goes on to list the ten predictions about the future that seem not so far fetched in light of how far we have come in the past century.

1. The Internet will be in your contact lenses.

2. Computers will disappear, as will cell phones, clocks, watches, and MP3 players.

3. Cars will be driver-less, using GPS to navigate without the help of an alert human behind the wheel.

4. Doctors will be able to grow 'spare parts' for our organs as they wear out.

5. The human life span will be extended.

6. Molecular 'smart bombs' circulating in our blood will home in on, zap, and kill cancer cells.

7. Our toilets and bathroom mirrors will contain DNA sensors, capable of detecting proteins emitted from perhaps a hundred cancer cells in a cancer colony, 10 years before a tumor forms.

8. The robot industry will dwarf the size of the current automobile industry.

9. Tourists will soar into outer space via space elevators.

10. With advanced technology also will come advanced dangers, especially biological warfare, nuclear proliferation, and global warming.

A fascinating list that bodes of great advances and as noted in prediction 10, might be the residual of 7 or 8 billion people trying to find balance amid a growing demand for excellence, where unskilled and semi-skilled becomes as obsolete as the tools noted in prediction 2.

Read more
Life a Hundred Years from Now: Part 2

Two Damn Good Reads About the Future

Tom Barnett answers an important question

A connected World

Profane, but concise description of the importance of these two recommended articles for the information contained within each.

The first, comes by way of Thomas P.M. Barnett in response to questions from a college student. Barnett's answers are solid gold advice for any person who interested in making a serious difference in the world. I was stimulated to pursue my current course after picking up his first book, The Pentagon's New Map back in the Spring of 2004. Barnett's horizontal thinking philosophy meshed with my own constant need to keep seeking new targets and subjects to uncover. Barnett answers three questions which pretty much chart out a pathway for any one seeking a rewarding future, where to quote Barnett's father is; "Making your natural hobby you career and getting paid for it." As a father, and teacher, I find Barnett's response perfectly suited for today's youth who have grown up on multi-tasking and used to constant change with each new technology advance. Here are the questions and a sample of Tom's answers.


How did you translate a career from being a Cold War analyst to an idea generator?

I didn't really. I wasn't really ever a "Cold War analyst," despite my training. In truth, I would have been magnificently unhappy if I had stayed a classic academic or become an intell analyst - or if the Cold War hadn't ended. I just have no staying power on subjects, defined by me as working a particular field for years and years as many people do. It just would have driven me insane. The longer I get trapped in one subject, the more depressed I become. I truly get off on drawing linkages between things versus cracking nuts on any one subject.

Is there any advice you have for students who are interested in making a serious difference in the world?

That's an inherent skill set for thinking laterally/horizontally, and since you will be changing subject matters constantly, the key is to develop your preferred tool kit of analytic approaches. There is no set way to do this, in my mind, you just want to consciously collect great analytic tricks, maneuvers, procedures as you go along. I probably have about three dozen that I use over and over again in all sorts of subject areas, because I've come to trust them in terms of the revealed output. So you think of them as tracking tricks, like stuff I always do when I'm canoeing a new river. Not the fastest route, but one that rewards you in the accumulation of impressions that lead to analysis. Being observant is everything. Analytically, my whole life feels like one big deja vu, meaning I am constantly saying to myself, "I think I've spotted this dynamic somewhere else before."

How did you develop your philosophies?

By constantly seeking out the most interesting and fear-filled work I could find, subjects where, by most accounts I had no business trying to forge new thinking (Isn't there somebody more established who can crank out an answer we all know and love - in advance?). If I don't feel over my head on some level, I don't like the work as a rule, unless the balancing factor is some insane ambition or unusually deep-in-the-future scope that allows a whacked amount of freedom in approach. One of those three factors needs to be in place.

Read the rest:
Questions from OH college student

diaper recycling plant

Someday Starbucks will be the only name?

This next article comes from Steve DeAngelis, CEO of Enterra Solutions and the fine blog Enterprise Resilience Management. Steve turns his attention in this post to the three "R's" with a twist where before they meant; reading, riting, and rithmathic, they now mean; reuse, recycle, and repurpose.

When companies think about waste, they think about shrinking profit margins. Every effort is made to reduce waste so that profit margins can be increased. I suspect that consumers won't get serious about waste reduction and recycling until they see waste in terms of dollar signs as well. Since Americans continue to increase the per capita amount of waste they generate rather than reduce it, it is apparent that generating waste has yet to hit them in their pocketbooks in a significant way. Fortunately, there are a number of entrepreneurs and established companies that do take waste seriously because they have realized that there is money to be made from recycling waste. In America, the three "R's" used to stand for: reading, 'riting, and 'rithmetic. Today the three "R's" stand for: reuse, recycle, and repurpose.

Here is an example of a few of the things being recycled.

"DIRTY DIAPERS -- A plant in Quebec turns soiled diapers into fuel. Using a method called pyrolysis, the plant heats up the diapers without oxygen. That breaks down the molecules of both the diapers and their, um, contents, yielding synthetic methane gas and diesel-like oil.

"COFFEE -- Coffee grounds can consist of up to 20 percent oil, making them an abundant source of biofuel. Researchers at the University of Nevada-Reno have separated oil from grounds and turned it into biofuel. The result even smells like your favorite java joint."

"URINE -- Ohio University's Gerardine Botte can convert urine to hydrogen, which is used to make electricity. While it's hard to collect enough human urine to make the process commercially viable, it may be a boon for hog farmers, who have trouble disposing of pig urine.

Maybe we will soon see Starbucks in competition with AM-PM where you can fuel up as you get your latte. The bottom line is this is another example of people thinking horizontally and laterally versus the vertically structured existence of the past half century where many have become slaves wearing blinders to the possibilities on the horizon.

Read more:
From Waste to Wealth
Enjoy reading, and if your a parent, pass Barnett's wisdom along to your son or daughter to consider as they plan their future path.